CHAOS WIN
03/31/2026 · Match #5 · Conquest
Confirmed by TTMara on 4/29/2026, 7:03:33 AM
Kills
27 – 56
MVP · best KDA
Boolougames 12/4/25
Biggest Elo gain
sillyslother +7.6
Biggest Elo drop
iRoFFLe -5.6
Balance Analysis
Based on 75 prior matchesORDER
48% win prob
Δ 15
Balanced
CHAOS
52% win prob
Order win probChaos win prob
Calibrated model prediction: 9% Order / 91% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
Weak3n
OVR
Diamond I
JUNGLE
Gold I
MISMATCH — Order
gap 88 · 62% favored
Jonhy0700
OVR
Bronze I
JUNGLE
Poo Poo III
ADC
iRoFFLe
OVR
Poo Poo II
ADC
Amber III PLACEMENT
SLIGHT EDGE — Chaos
gap 26 · 54% favored
Kryooo
OVR
Bronze I
ADC
Bronze III
MID
OSteg
OVR
Bronze II
MID
Poo Poo III
MISMATCH — Chaos
gap 120 · 67% favored
Boolougames
OVR
Platinum I
MID
Platinum I
SOLO
Tricky
OVR
Dog Shit III
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 8 · 51% favored
plumpkn
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Riptzer
OVR
Silver I
SUPPORT
Gold I
EVEN
gap 4 · 51% favored
sillyslother
OVR
Gold I
SUPPORT
Gold I
ORDER (LOSS) 27 kills Team Δ -19.6
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Weak3n | 6/10/11 | 1.70 | 132 | ▼ -3.0 | 129 | 75 | |
| ADC THIRD | iRoFFLe | 4/16/3 | 0.44 | -7 | ▼ -5.6 | -12 | 15 | |
| MID SECONDARY | OSteg | 7/10/8 | 1.50 | 22 | ▼ -3.4 | 19 | 38 | |
| SOLO THIRD | Tricky | 6/10/2 | 0.80 | -29 | ▼ -3.5 | -32 | 14 | |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer C | 4/10/7 | 1.10 | 49 | ▼ -4.1 | 45 | 42 |
CHAOS (WIN) 56 kills Team Δ +28.7
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Jonhy0700 C | 23/8/14 | 4.63 | 35 | ▲ +4.0 | 39 | 71 | |
| ADC | Kryooo | 12/6/19 | 5.17 | 29 | ▲ +4.2 | 33 | 37 | |
| MID | Boolougames MVP TOP DMG | 12/4/25 | 9.25 | 106 | ▲ +7.5 | 114 | 37 | |
| SOLO NEW | plumpkn | 6/3/12 | 6.00 | 0 | ▲ +5.4 | 5 | 0 | |
| SUPPORT | sillyslother | 3/6/37 | 6.67 | 74 | ▲ +7.6 | 82 | 43 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 1
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | plumpkn | rookie | |
| ADC | sillyslother | Gold I | Silver III PLACEMENT |
| MID | Kryooo | Bronze I | Bronze I PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Diamond I | Platinum II PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Jonhy0700 | Bronze I | Amber III PLACEMENT |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | iRoFFLe | Poo Poo II | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Tricky | Dog Shit III | Bronze III PLACEMENT |
| MID | Boolougames | Platinum I | Platinum I |
| SOLO | OSteg | Bronze II | Bronze II PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer | Silver I | Gold I |
What changed vs actual draft
- Weak3n: ORDER JUNGLE → ORDER SOLO
- Jonhy0700: CHAOS JUNGLE → ORDER SUPPORT
- sillyslother: CHAOS SUPPORT → ORDER ADC
- Kryooo: CHAOS ADC → ORDER MID
- plumpkn: CHAOS SOLO → ORDER JUNGLE
- Riptzer: ORDER SUPPORT → CHAOS SUPPORT
- OSteg: ORDER MID → CHAOS SOLO
- Tricky: ORDER SOLO → CHAOS ADC
- iRoFFLe: ORDER ADC → CHAOS JUNGLE