ORDER WIN
UPSET
03/31/2026 · Match #4 · Conquest
Confirmed by TTMara on 4/29/2026, 7:03:37 AM
Kills
35 – 15
MVP · best KDA
Sunless 5/1/8
Biggest Elo gain
Sunless +12.1
Biggest Elo drop
Riptzer -8.5
Balance Analysis
Based on 74 prior matchesORDER
44% win prob
Δ 43
Lean CHAOS
UPSET — underdog won
CHAOS
56% win prob
Order win probChaos win prob
Calibrated model prediction: 9% Order / 91% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
Jonhy0700
OVR
Bronze II
JUNGLE
Dog Shit I
MISMATCH — Chaos
gap 103 · 64% favored
Weak3n
OVR
Diamond I
JUNGLE
Platinum III
ADC
Tito
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC
Amber III PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 5 · 51% favored
SnixJ
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC
Amber III PLACEMENT
MID
Kryooo
OVR
Bronze II
MID
Amber III PLACEMENT
MISMATCH — Chaos
gap 113 · 66% favored
Boolougames
OVR
Diamond III
MID
Diamond III
SOLO
Sunless
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 5 · 51% favored
Tricky
OVR
Dog Shit III
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
OSteg
OVR
Bronze III
SUPPORT
Amber III PLACEMENT
MISMATCH — Chaos
gap 81 · 61% favored
Riptzer
OVR
Gold III
SUPPORT
Gold I
ORDER (WIN) 35 kills Team Δ +33.7
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Jonhy0700 | 15/3/7 | 7.33 | 28 | ▲ +6.8 | 35 | 70 | |
| ADC | Tito TOP DMG | 8/3/5 | 4.33 | -5 | ▲ +4.0 | -1 | 3 | |
| MID OFF-ROLE | Kryooo | 7/3/13 | 6.67 | 23 | ▲ +5.8 | 29 | 36 | |
| SOLO NEW | Sunless MVP | 5/1/8 | 13.00 | -3 | ▲ +12.1 | 9 | 1 | |
| SUPPORT THIRD | OSteg C | 0/5/20 | 4.00 | 17 | ▲ +5.0 | 22 | 37 |
CHAOS (LOSS) 15 kills Team Δ -27.3
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Weak3n | 3/9/6 | 1.00 | 139 | ▼ -7.9 | 132 | 74 | |
| ADC NEW | SnixJ | 4/7/5 | 1.29 | -5 | ▼ -3.0 | -8 | 1 | |
| MID | Boolougames | 5/7/7 | 1.71 | 111 | ▼ -4.5 | 106 | 36 | |
| SOLO OFF-ROLE | Tricky C | 1/6/5 | 1.00 | -25 | ▼ -3.4 | -29 | 13 | |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer | 2/6/3 | 0.83 | 58 | ▼ -8.5 | 49 | 41 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 2
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | OSteg | Bronze III | Amber II PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Tricky | Dog Shit III | Bronze III PLACEMENT |
| MID | Kryooo | Bronze II | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Diamond I | Platinum II PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Jonhy0700 | Bronze II | Amber III PLACEMENT |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Sunless | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | SnixJ | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | Boolougames | Diamond III | Diamond III |
| SOLO | Tito | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer | Gold III | Gold I |
What changed vs actual draft
- Jonhy0700: ORDER JUNGLE → ORDER SUPPORT
- OSteg: ORDER SUPPORT → ORDER JUNGLE
- Weak3n: CHAOS JUNGLE → ORDER SOLO
- Tricky: CHAOS SOLO → ORDER ADC
- Tito: ORDER ADC → CHAOS SOLO
- Sunless: ORDER SOLO → CHAOS JUNGLE
Notes / Flags
- Tricky [weak3n_said]: YOUR FAT ASS JUST BODY BLOCKED ME