ORDER WIN
F6 by CHAOS
UPSET
05/17/2026 · Match #5 · Conquest
Confirmed by Jalopy on 5/18/2026, 2:25:34 PM
Kills
16 – 4
MVP · best KDA
RogueThrone 6/0/2
Biggest Elo gain
Eclipse feeds +10.9
Biggest Elo drop
Riptzer -5.5
Balance Analysis
Based on 147 prior matchesORDER
39% win prob
Δ 76
CHAOS favored
UPSET — underdog won
CHAOS
61% win prob
Order win probChaos win prob
Calibrated model prediction: 1% Order / 99% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
RogueThrone
OVR
ROFFLE Tier
JUNGLE
Amber III PLACEMENT
MISMATCH — Chaos
gap 142 · 69% favored
Weak3n
OVR
Diamond III
JUNGLE
Gold II
ADC
Sink
OVR
Bronze III
ADC
Amber I PLACEMENT
SLIGHT EDGE — Order
gap 29 · 54% favored
Riptzer
OVR
Obsidian I
ADC
Dog Shit I
MID
Boolougames
OVR
Gold II
MID
Platinum III
CLEAR EDGE — Order
gap 48 · 57% favored
Draiden
OVR
Platinum III
MID
Silver III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Jonhy0700
OVR
Amber III
SOLO
Bronze III
SLIGHT EDGE — Chaos
gap 27 · 54% favored
OSteg
OVR
Bronze I
SOLO
Silver II
SUPPORT
Eclipse feeds
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Amber III PLACEMENT
SLIGHT EDGE — Order
gap 25 · 54% favored
iRoFFLe
OVR
ROFFLE Tier
SUPPORT
Dog Shit III
ORDER (WIN) 16 kills Team Δ +36.5
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE OFF-ROLE | RogueThrone MVP STOMPER | 6/0/2 | 8.00 | -98 | ▲ +10.1 | -88 | 83 | |
| ADC OFF-ROLE | Sink C STOMPER | 1/1/2 | 3.00 | 18 | ▲ +3.4 | 21 | 15 | |
| MID | Boolougames STOMPER | 3/2/7 | 5.00 | 66 | ▲ +5.8 | 72 | 64 | |
| SOLO THIRD | Jonhy0700 TOP DMG STOMPER | 5/1/1 | 6.00 | 1 | ▲ +6.3 | 7 | 138 | |
| SUPPORT NEW | Eclipse feeds STOMPER | 1/0/6 | 7.00 | 0 | ▲ +10.9 | 11 | 0 |
CHAOS (LOSS) 4 kills Team Δ -20.0
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Weak3n F6er | 4/3/0 | 1.33 | 112 | ▼ -2.3 | 110 | 147 | |
| ADC THIRD | Riptzer F6er | 0/3/1 | 0.33 | 173 | ▼ -5.5 | 168 | 97 | |
| MID SECONDARY | Draiden C F6er | 0/5/1 | 0.20 | 88 | ▼ -5.5 | 83 | 16 | |
| SOLO SECONDARY | OSteg F6er | 0/4/1 | 0.25 | 30 | ▼ -5.5 | 25 | 65 | |
| SUPPORT | iRoFFLe F6er | 0/1/2 | 2.00 | -36 | ▼ -1.2 | -37 | 31 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 0
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Eclipse feeds | rookie | |
| ADC | iRoFFLe | ROFFLE Tier | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | Riptzer | Obsidian I | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Diamond III | Platinum III PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Jonhy0700 | Amber III | Amber III PLACEMENT |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Draiden | Platinum III | Platinum III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Sink | Bronze III | Amber I PLACEMENT |
| MID | Boolougames | Gold II | Platinum III |
| SOLO | RogueThrone | ROFFLE Tier | Dog Shit I |
| SUPPORT | OSteg | Bronze I | Amber I PLACEMENT |
What changed vs actual draft
- Jonhy0700: ORDER SOLO → ORDER SUPPORT
- Eclipse feeds: ORDER SUPPORT → ORDER JUNGLE
- Weak3n: CHAOS JUNGLE → ORDER SOLO
- Riptzer: CHAOS ADC → ORDER MID
- iRoFFLe: CHAOS SUPPORT → ORDER ADC
- RogueThrone: ORDER JUNGLE → CHAOS SOLO
- Boolougames: ORDER MID → CHAOS MID
- Sink: ORDER ADC → CHAOS ADC
- OSteg: CHAOS SOLO → CHAOS SUPPORT
- Draiden: CHAOS MID → CHAOS JUNGLE
Notes / Flags
- OSteg [shitter]: dominated in lane / used abilities wrong
- Draiden [shitter]: 5 deaths before 10 mins