ORDER WIN
UPSET
04/28/2026 · Match #4 · Conquest
Confirmed by Jalopy on 4/29/2026, 2:59:13 PM
Kills
26 – 30
MVP · best KDA
Weak3n 9/3/12
Biggest Elo gain
JohnRowing +13.0
Biggest Elo drop
Lacedreggie -10.5
Balance Analysis
Based on 78 prior matchesORDER
38% win prob
Δ 84
CHAOS favored
UPSET — underdog won
CHAOS
62% win prob
Order win probChaos win prob
Calibrated model prediction: 7% Order / 93% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
Jonhy0700
OVR
Bronze II
JUNGLE
Dog Shit I
MISMATCH — Chaos
gap 91 · 63% favored
Weak3n
OVR
Diamond I
JUNGLE
Gold II
ADC
Marsupial
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC
Amber III PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 0 · 50% favored
Lacedreggie
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC
Amber III PLACEMENT
MID
RogueThrone
OVR
ROFFLE Tier
MID
Amber III PLACEMENT
MISMATCH — Chaos
gap 193 · 75% favored
Boolougames
OVR
Diamond II
MID
Diamond II
SOLO
JohnRowing
OVR
Amber II
SOLO
Amber II
SLIGHT EDGE — Chaos
gap 17 · 52% favored
OSteg
OVR
Bronze III
SOLO
Bronze II PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Hydra
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Amber III PLACEMENT
MISMATCH — Chaos
gap 74 · 60% favored
Riptzer
OVR
Silver I
SUPPORT
Gold I
ORDER (WIN) 26 kills Team Δ +37.1
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Jonhy0700 | 4/7/9 | 1.86 | 26 | ▲ +5.5 | 32 | 74 | |
| ADC NEW | Marsupial | 5/6/5 | 1.67 | 0 | ▲ +5.1 | 5 | 0 | |
| MID THIRD | RogueThrone C | 3/7/8 | 1.57 | -126 | ▲ +4.6 | -121 | 45 | |
| SOLO | JohnRowing TOP DMG | 13/5/9 | 4.40 | 10 | ▲ +13.0 | 23 | 11 | |
| SUPPORT NEW | Hydra | 1/5/10 | 2.20 | 0 | ▲ +8.9 | 9 | 0 |
CHAOS (LOSS) 30 kills Team Δ -32.6
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Weak3n MVP | 9/3/12 | 7.00 | 133 | ▼ -4.2 | 128 | 78 | |
| ADC NEW | Lacedreggie | 6/7/15 | 3.00 | 0 | ▼ -10.5 | -10 | 0 | |
| MID | Boolougames | 7/7/14 | 3.00 | 123 | ▼ -9.9 | 113 | 40 | |
| SOLO THIRD | OSteg C | 6/6/12 | 3.00 | 19 | ▼ -4.5 | 15 | 39 | |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer | 2/3/16 | 6.00 | 57 | ▼ -3.6 | 53 | 45 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
51% win prob
Δ 7
most balanced split
CHAOS
49% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | OSteg | Bronze III | Amber II PLACEMENT |
| ADC | JohnRowing | Amber II | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | Jonhy0700 | Bronze II | Bronze III |
| SOLO | RogueThrone | ROFFLE Tier | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer | Silver I | Gold I |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Hydra | rookie | |
| ADC | Lacedreggie | rookie | |
| MID | Boolougames | Diamond II | Diamond II |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Diamond I | Platinum II PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Marsupial | rookie | |
What changed vs actual draft
- Jonhy0700: ORDER JUNGLE → ORDER MID
- RogueThrone: ORDER MID → ORDER SOLO
- JohnRowing: ORDER SOLO → ORDER ADC
- Riptzer: CHAOS SUPPORT → ORDER SUPPORT
- OSteg: CHAOS SOLO → ORDER JUNGLE
- Hydra: ORDER SUPPORT → CHAOS JUNGLE
- Marsupial: ORDER ADC → CHAOS SUPPORT
- Weak3n: CHAOS JUNGLE → CHAOS SOLO
Notes / Flags
- Lacedreggie [weak3n_said]: "you hard costed this game, why do you not have pen?"
- Lacedreggie [weak3n_said]: "if i hear "i wasn't even thinking" one more time, I'm going to snap"
- Lacedreggie [shitter]: no pen