CHAOS WIN
UPSET
04/27/2026 · Match #2 · Conquest
Confirmed by TTMara on 4/28/2026, 4:18:35 PM
Kills
20 – 34
MVP · best KDA
ItzStallone 13/2/7
Biggest Elo gain
Riptzer +11.5
Biggest Elo drop
Suhlayer -8.6
Balance Analysis
Based on 66 prior matchesORDER
54% win prob
Δ 27
Lean ORDER
UPSET — underdog won
CHAOS
46% win prob
Order win probChaos win prob
Calibrated model prediction: 45% Order / 55% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
sillyslother
OVR
Gold II
JUNGLE
Amber III PLACEMENT
CLEAR EDGE — Chaos
gap 58 · 58% favored
Weak3n
OVR
Platinum I
JUNGLE
Silver I
ADC
Jonhy0700
OVR
Bronze I
ADC
Amber III PLACEMENT
SLIGHT EDGE — Chaos
gap 21 · 53% favored
OSteg
OVR
Amber I
ADC
Amber III PLACEMENT
MID
Suhlayer
OVR
Amber I PLACEMENT
MID
Amber I PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 1 · 50% favored
ItzStallone
OVR
Silver II
MID
Bronze III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Boolougames
OVR
Platinum II
SOLO
Bronze I PLACEMENT
CLEAR EDGE — Order
gap 42 · 56% favored
RogueThrone
OVR
ROFFLE Tier
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
DeltaJulz613
OVR
Amber I
SUPPORT
Amber I PLACEMENT
CLEAR EDGE — Chaos
gap 35 · 55% favored
Riptzer
OVR
Silver III
SUPPORT
Silver I
ORDER (LOSS) 20 kills Team Δ -28.4
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE THIRD | sillyslother | 6/9/6 | 1.33 | 72 | ▼ -5.4 | 67 | 36 | |
| ADC THIRD | Jonhy0700 | 4/7/2 | 0.86 | 30 | ▼ -3.9 | 26 | 64 | |
| MID NEW | Suhlayer | 2/7/4 | 0.86 | 15 | ▼ -8.6 | 7 | 2 | |
| SOLO THIRD | Boolougames C | 5/5/2 | 1.40 | 96 | ▼ -5.6 | 90 | 30 | |
| SUPPORT | DeltaJulz613 | 3/6/5 | 1.33 | 12 | ▼ -4.9 | 7 | 14 |
CHAOS (WIN) 34 kills Team Δ +32.3
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Weak3n TOP DMG | 13/3/14 | 9.00 | 106 | ▲ +7.8 | 113 | 66 | |
| ADC SECONDARY | OSteg | 5/7/9 | 2.00 | 16 | ▲ +1.9 | 17 | 34 | |
| MID | ItzStallone MVP C | 13/2/7 | 10.00 | 45 | ▲ +8.9 | 54 | 18 | |
| SOLO THIRD | RogueThrone | 3/6/11 | 2.33 | -114 | ▲ +2.2 | -112 | 40 | |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer | 0/2/19 | 9.50 | 37 | ▲ +11.5 | 49 | 33 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 2
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Suhlayer | Amber I PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | ItzStallone | Silver II | Gold III PLACEMENT |
| MID | Jonhy0700 | Bronze I | Bronze III |
| SOLO | OSteg | Amber I | Bronze II PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | sillyslother | Gold II | Gold II |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | DeltaJulz613 | Amber I | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | RogueThrone | ROFFLE Tier | ROFFLE Tier |
| MID | Boolougames | Platinum II | Platinum II |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Platinum I | Platinum II PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer | Silver III | Silver I |
What changed vs actual draft
- Suhlayer: ORDER MID → ORDER JUNGLE
- Jonhy0700: ORDER ADC → ORDER MID
- sillyslother: ORDER JUNGLE → ORDER SUPPORT
- OSteg: CHAOS ADC → ORDER SOLO
- ItzStallone: CHAOS MID → ORDER ADC
- Boolougames: ORDER SOLO → CHAOS MID
- DeltaJulz613: ORDER SUPPORT → CHAOS JUNGLE
- Weak3n: CHAOS JUNGLE → CHAOS SOLO
- RogueThrone: CHAOS SOLO → CHAOS ADC
Notes / Flags
- OSteg [weak3n_said]: "alright ayo, im doing a lot over there i need you to stop fuckin dying get a ward out"