04/23/2026 · Match #44 · Conquest UNCONFIRMED
ORDER WIN · Weak3n: AGAINST
VOD: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/2744166370?t=3h19m55s @ 11995s
Balance Analysis
Based on 41 prior matchesORDER
41% win prob
Δ 63
Slight edge
UPSET — underdog won
CHAOS
59% win prob
ORDER (WIN) Team Δ +127.7
| Role | Player | God | K | D | A | Elo Before | Δ | Elo After | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SUPPORT THIRD | RogueThrone | Ne Zha | 7 | 6 | 19 | -9 | +24.7 | 16 | 30 |
| JUNGLE THIRD | Jigann | Pele | 5 | 7 | 16 | -34 | +21.9 | -12 | 7 |
| MID OFF-ROLE | Riptzer | Agni | 11 | 8 | 8 | 58 | +23.2 | 82 | 14 |
| SOLO SECONDARY | AlphaClaps | Susano | 14 | 5 | 11 | 53 | +23.9 | 77 | 13 |
| ADC THIRD | Boolougames | Discordia | 9 | 3 | 23 | 58 | +34.0 | 92 | 10 |
CHAOS (LOSS) Team Δ -70.8
| Role | Player | God | K | D | A | Elo Before | Δ | Elo After | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADC SECONDARY | Weak3n | Yemoja | 0 | 7 | 18 | 204 | -15.9 | 188 | 41 |
| MID THIRD | Tricky | Merlin | 6 | 8 | 5 | 96 | -12.9 | 83 | 11 |
| SUPPORT OFF-ROLE | Jonhy0700 | Hun Batz | 12 | 11 | 10 | 173 | -12.3 | 160 | 40 |
| JUNGLE NEW | Harden | Rama | 11 | 11 | 7 | -32 | -15.9 | -48 | 2 |
| SOLO NEW | Mytharria | Mordred | 0 | 9 | 4 | 0 | -13.8 | -14 | 0 |
Elo: K=32 base · off-role wins boosted, off-role losses softened · stomps (F6) +25%
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
49% win prob
Δ 3
most balanced split
CHAOS
51% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Elo |
|---|---|---|
| SUPPORT | RogueThrone | -9 |
| JUNGLE | Harden | -32 |
| MID | Riptzer | 58 |
| SOLO | AlphaClaps | 53 |
| ADC | Weak3n | 204 |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Elo |
|---|---|---|
| SUPPORT | Jonhy0700 | 173 |
| JUNGLE | Jigann | -34 |
| MID | Tricky | 96 |
| SOLO | Mytharria | rookie |
| ADC | Boolougames | 58 |
What changed vs actual draft
- Harden: CHAOS JUNGLE → ORDER JUNGLE
- Weak3n: CHAOS ADC → ORDER ADC