ORDER WIN
UPSET
07/15/2026 · Match #5 · Conquest
Kills
33 – 21
MVP · best KDA
OSteg 17/3/6
Biggest Elo gain
OSteg +9.1
Biggest Elo drop
i cant read -9.2
Balance Analysis
Based on 218 prior matchesORDER
46% win prob
Δ 26
Lean CHAOS
UPSET — underdog won
CHAOS
54% win prob
Order win probChaos win prob
Calibrated model prediction: 0% Order / 100% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
Kryooo
OVR
Obsidian III
JUNGLE
Silver I
SLIGHT EDGE — Chaos
gap 28 · 54% favored
Weak3n
OVR
Obsidian III
JUNGLE
Gold I
ADC
OSteg
OVR
Amber I
ADC
ROFFLE Tier
SLIGHT EDGE — Order
gap 13 · 52% favored
i cant read
OVR
ROFFLE Tier
ADC
ROFFLE Tier
MID
NinnyJug
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
MID
Amber III PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 3 · 50% favored
Malenia
OVR
Amber III
MID
Amber III
SOLO
Spoon
OVR
Poo Poo III
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
SLIGHT EDGE — Order
gap 17 · 53% favored
Riptzer
OVR
Master I
SOLO
Dog Shit III
SUPPORT
Horrify
OVR
Silver II
SUPPORT
Poo Poo I
SLIGHT EDGE — Chaos
gap 23 · 53% favored
iRoFFLe
OVR
Poo Poo II
SUPPORT
Bronze III
ORDER (WIN) 33 kills Team Δ +32.2
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE SECONDARY | Kryooo | 9/7/18 | 3.86 | 153 | ▲ +4.0 | 157 | 105 | |
| ADC THIRD | OSteg MVP | 17/3/6 | 7.67 | 12 | ▲ +9.1 | 21 | 99 | |
| MID NEW | NinnyJug | 6/3/16 | 7.33 | -17 | ▲ +7.6 | -10 | 1 | |
| SOLO | Spoon | 0/2/12 | 6.00 | -13 | ▲ +7.8 | -5 | 16 | |
| SUPPORT SECONDARY | Horrify | 1/8/19 | 2.50 | 48 | ▲ +3.7 | 52 | 50 |
CHAOS (LOSS) 21 kills Team Δ -32.2
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Weak3n | 3/11/12 | 1.36 | 148 | ▼ -8.6 | 140 | 218 | |
| ADC | i cant read | 3/5/3 | 1.20 | -55 | ▼ -9.2 | -64 | 73 | |
| MID | Malenia | 10/6/7 | 2.83 | 3 | ▼ -3.8 | 0 | 10 | |
| SOLO THIRD | Riptzer | 3/3/6 | 3.00 | 221 | ▼ -3.4 | 217 | 143 | |
| SUPPORT | iRoFFLe | 2/8/8 | 1.25 | -6 | ▼ -7.1 | -13 | 61 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 1
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | NinnyJug | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Malenia | Amber III | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | Spoon | Poo Poo III | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | OSteg | Amber I | Silver I |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer | Master I | Demigod |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | i cant read | ROFFLE Tier | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Horrify | Silver II | Bronze III PLACEMENT |
| MID | Kryooo | Obsidian III | Bronze I PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Obsidian III | Platinum II PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | iRoFFLe | Poo Poo II | Bronze III |
What changed vs actual draft
- Spoon: ORDER SOLO → ORDER MID
- OSteg: ORDER ADC → ORDER SOLO
- NinnyJug: ORDER MID → ORDER JUNGLE
- Riptzer: CHAOS SOLO → ORDER SUPPORT
- Malenia: CHAOS MID → ORDER ADC
- Kryooo: ORDER JUNGLE → CHAOS MID
- Horrify: ORDER SUPPORT → CHAOS ADC
- Weak3n: CHAOS JUNGLE → CHAOS SOLO
- i cant read: CHAOS ADC → CHAOS JUNGLE
Notes / Flags
- Riptzer [general]: cap
- Horrify [general]: cap
- Malenia [general]: top