CHAOS WIN
05/25/2026 · Match #4 · Conquest
Confirmed by Jalopy on 5/26/2026, 2:47:28 PM
Kills
16 – 37
MVP · best KDA
Xuffer 2/1/21
Biggest Elo gain
Xuffer +13.8
Biggest Elo drop
OSteg -6.6
Balance Analysis
Based on 174 prior matchesORDER
41% win prob
Δ 62
Lean CHAOS
CHAOS
59% win prob
Order win probChaos win prob
Calibrated model prediction: 0% Order / 100% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
Weak3n
OVR
Silver I
JUNGLE
Amber II
EVEN
gap 1 · 50% favored
Riptzer
OVR
Obsidian III
JUNGLE
Amber II PLACEMENT
ADC
RogueThrone
OVR
ROFFLE Tier
ADC
ROFFLE Tier
MISMATCH — Chaos
gap 61 · 59% favored
i cant read
OVR
Poo Poo II
ADC
Dog Shit I
MID
OSteg
OVR
Bronze II
MID
Dog Shit I
SLIGHT EDGE — Chaos
gap 29 · 54% favored
Dest
OVR
Amber II PLACEMENT
MID
Amber II PLACEMENT
SOLO
Shmeep
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
SLIGHT EDGE — Chaos
gap 28 · 54% favored
Boolougames
OVR
Platinum I
SOLO
Bronze III
SUPPORT
CashoutSinai
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Amber III PLACEMENT
SLIGHT EDGE — Chaos
gap 14 · 52% favored
Xuffer
OVR
Amber I PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Amber I PLACEMENT
ORDER (LOSS) 16 kills Team Δ -21.1
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Weak3n | 5/5/5 | 2.00 | 56 | ▼ -2.7 | 53 | 174 | |
| ADC SECONDARY | RogueThrone C | 2/8/9 | 1.38 | -104 | ▼ -4.6 | -109 | 101 | |
| MID SECONDARY | OSteg | 2/7/4 | 0.86 | 23 | ▼ -6.6 | 16 | 83 | |
| SOLO SECONDARY | Shmeep | 5/8/7 | 1.50 | -10 | ▼ -3.5 | -13 | 8 | |
| SUPPORT NEW | CashoutSinai | 2/9/4 | 0.67 | -4 | ▼ -3.6 | -8 | 1 |
CHAOS (WIN) 37 kills Team Δ +24.7
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE OFF-ROLE | Riptzer | 14/2/7 | 10.50 | 149 | ▲ +4.9 | 154 | 119 | |
| ADC | i cant read C | 9/4/11 | 5.00 | -9 | ▲ +2.2 | -7 | 45 | |
| MID | Dest TOP DMG | 5/3/11 | 5.33 | 9 | ▲ +2.3 | 12 | 9 | |
| SOLO THIRD | Boolougames | 7/6/9 | 2.67 | 106 | ▲ +1.5 | 107 | 86 | |
| SUPPORT | Xuffer MVP | 2/1/21 | 23.00 | 14 | ▲ +13.8 | 28 | 5 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 0
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | CashoutSinai | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Xuffer | Amber I PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | Shmeep | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | i cant read | Poo Poo II | Amber I PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer | Obsidian III | Master III |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | OSteg | Bronze II | Amber I PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Dest | Amber II PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | Boolougames | Platinum I | Diamond III |
| SOLO | RogueThrone | ROFFLE Tier | Poo Poo I |
| SUPPORT | Weak3n | Silver I | Gold II |
What changed vs actual draft
- Shmeep: ORDER SOLO → ORDER MID
- CashoutSinai: ORDER SUPPORT → ORDER JUNGLE
- Xuffer: CHAOS SUPPORT → ORDER ADC
- Riptzer: CHAOS JUNGLE → ORDER SUPPORT
- i cant read: CHAOS ADC → ORDER SOLO
- Weak3n: ORDER JUNGLE → CHAOS SUPPORT
- RogueThrone: ORDER ADC → CHAOS SOLO
- OSteg: ORDER MID → CHAOS JUNGLE
- Dest: CHAOS MID → CHAOS ADC
- Boolougames: CHAOS SOLO → CHAOS MID