CHAOS WIN
UPSET
05/20/2026 · Match #5 · Conquest
Confirmed by Jalopy on 5/21/2026, 2:16:52 PM
Kills
26 – 52
MVP · best KDA
Kryooo 2/2/31
Biggest Elo gain
Kryooo +17.8
Biggest Elo drop
Boolougames -9.0
Balance Analysis
Based on 163 prior matchesORDER
57% win prob
Δ 46
Lean ORDER
UPSET — underdog won
CHAOS
43% win prob
Order win probChaos win prob
Calibrated model prediction: 54% Order / 46% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
Weak3n
OVR
Platinum II
JUNGLE
Silver II
CLEAR EDGE — Order
gap 49 · 57% favored
Bioskyz
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
JUNGLE
Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC
i cant read
OVR
Dog Shit II
ADC
Dog Shit I
MISMATCH — Order
gap 61 · 59% favored
RogueThrone
OVR
ROFFLE Tier
ADC
ROFFLE Tier
MID
Boolougames
OVR
Gold II
MID
Gold I
MISMATCH — Order
gap 71 · 60% favored
Sink
OVR
Silver III
MID
Amber II PLACEMENT
SOLO
OSteg
OVR
Bronze I
SOLO
Silver I
SLIGHT EDGE — Order
gap 30 · 54% favored
Horrify
OVR
Poo Poo II
SOLO
Bronze III
SUPPORT
Draiden
OVR
Platinum II
SUPPORT
Bronze I
SLIGHT EDGE — Chaos
gap 19 · 53% favored
Kryooo
OVR
Platinum I
SUPPORT
Silver I PLACEMENT
ORDER (LOSS) 26 kills Team Δ -29.6
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Weak3n TOP DMG | 11/13/10 | 1.62 | 95 | ▼ -6.7 | 88 | 163 | |
| ADC | i cant read | 9/7/9 | 2.57 | -21 | ▼ -4.2 | -26 | 38 | |
| MID | Boolougames | 2/10/11 | 1.30 | 68 | ▼ -9.0 | 59 | 78 | |
| SOLO SECONDARY | OSteg | 2/11/10 | 1.09 | 32 | ▼ -4.4 | 27 | 77 | |
| SUPPORT | Draiden C | 2/11/15 | 1.55 | 93 | ▼ -5.4 | 88 | 24 |
CHAOS (WIN) 52 kills Team Δ +34.0
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE NEW | Bioskyz | 18/5/16 | 6.80 | -5 | ▲ +5.5 | 0 | 1 | |
| ADC | RogueThrone | 8/8/7 | 1.88 | -98 | ▲ +2.0 | -96 | 93 | |
| MID SECONDARY | Sink | 12/7/16 | 4.00 | 37 | ▲ +3.2 | 40 | 20 | |
| SOLO | Horrify C | 12/4/15 | 6.75 | -9 | ▲ +5.5 | -3 | 37 | |
| SUPPORT OFF-ROLE | Kryooo MVP | 2/2/31 | 16.50 | 109 | ▲ +17.8 | 127 | 82 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 0
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | i cant read | Dog Shit II | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Horrify | Poo Poo II | Amber I PLACEMENT |
| MID | Boolougames | Gold II | Gold I |
| SOLO | OSteg | Bronze I | Silver I |
| SUPPORT | Weak3n | Platinum II | Gold II |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Draiden | Platinum II | Platinum II PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Bioskyz | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | Kryooo | Platinum I | Bronze II PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | RogueThrone | ROFFLE Tier | Poo Poo III |
| SUPPORT | Sink | Silver III | Amber III PLACEMENT |
What changed vs actual draft
- Weak3n: ORDER JUNGLE → ORDER SUPPORT
- i cant read: ORDER ADC → ORDER JUNGLE
- Horrify: CHAOS SOLO → ORDER ADC
- Draiden: ORDER SUPPORT → CHAOS JUNGLE
- RogueThrone: CHAOS ADC → CHAOS SOLO
- Kryooo: CHAOS SUPPORT → CHAOS MID
- Sink: CHAOS MID → CHAOS SUPPORT
- Bioskyz: CHAOS JUNGLE → CHAOS ADC