05/17/2026 · Match #6 · Conquest CONFIRMED
Confirmed by Jalopy on 5/18/2026, 2:32:23 PM
CHAOS WIN · Weak3n: WITH · Length: 36:32
VOD: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/2774658280?t=04h13m10s @ 15190s
Balance Analysis
Based on 148 prior matchesORDER
38% win prob
Δ 84
CHAOS favored
CHAOS
62% win prob
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
RogueThrone
OVR
ROFFLE Tier
JUNGLE
Amber III PLACEMENT
MISMATCH — Chaos
gap 129 · 68% favored
Weak3n
OVR
Platinum I
JUNGLE
Gold III
ADC
Eclipse feeds
OVR
Amber I PLACEMENT
ADC
Amber III PLACEMENT
MISMATCH — Chaos
gap 61 · 59% favored
Draiden
OVR
Platinum III
ADC
Gold III PLACEMENT
MID
Sink
OVR
Bronze III
MID
Amber III PLACEMENT
MISMATCH — Chaos
gap 89 · 63% favored
Boolougames
OVR
Gold II
MID
Platinum II
SOLO
Hydra
OVR
Bronze I PLACEMENT
SOLO
Bronze III PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 9 · 51% favored
Riptzer
OVR
Obsidian I
SOLO
Amber II
SUPPORT
ItzBedard
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Amber III PLACEMENT
SLIGHT EDGE — Order
gap 26 · 54% favored
iRoFFLe
OVR
ROFFLE Tier
SUPPORT
Dog Shit III
ORDER (LOSS) Team Δ -14.4
| Role | Player | God | K | D | A | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE OFF-ROLE | RogueThrone | Da Ji | 5 | 13 | 8 | -88 | -3.6 | -92 | 84 |
| ADC NEW | Eclipse feeds | Hou Yi | 11 | 7 | 6 | 11 | -1.4 | 9 | 1 |
| MID THIRD | Sink | Janus | 4 | 12 | 11 | 21 | -6.0 | 15 | 16 |
| SOLO SECONDARY | Hydra C | Hua Mulan | 1 | 8 | 9 | 30 | -2.5 | 28 | 3 |
| SUPPORT NEW | ItzBedard | Cerberus | 3 | 7 | 17 | 0 | -1.0 | -1 | 0 |
CHAOS (WIN) Team Δ +22.9
| Role | Player | God | K | D | A | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Weak3n TOP DMG | Loki | 10 | 4 | 17 | 110 | +5.7 | 116 | 148 |
| ADC OFF-ROLE | Draiden | Ishtar | 11 | 4 | 15 | 83 | +5.5 | 88 | 17 |
| MID | Boolougames | Kukulkan | 7 | 7 | 16 | 72 | +2.8 | 75 | 65 |
| SOLO THIRD | Riptzer C | Sol | 8 | 4 | 8 | 168 | +3.5 | 171 | 98 |
| SUPPORT | iRoFFLe | Sobek | 2 | 5 | 21 | -37 | +5.4 | -32 | 32 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 0
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Draiden | Platinum III | Platinum III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Hydra | Bronze I PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | Boolougames | Gold II | Platinum II |
| SOLO | RogueThrone | ROFFLE Tier | Dog Shit I |
| SUPPORT | Sink | Bronze III | Amber III PLACEMENT |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Eclipse feeds | Amber I PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | ItzBedard | rookie | |
| MID | iRoFFLe | ROFFLE Tier | Poo Poo II |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Platinum I | Platinum III PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer | Obsidian I | Obsidian I |
What changed vs actual draft
- RogueThrone: ORDER JUNGLE → ORDER SOLO
- Hydra: ORDER SOLO → ORDER ADC
- Sink: ORDER MID → ORDER SUPPORT
- Boolougames: CHAOS MID → ORDER MID
- Draiden: CHAOS ADC → ORDER JUNGLE
- Eclipse feeds: ORDER ADC → CHAOS JUNGLE
- ItzBedard: ORDER SUPPORT → CHAOS ADC
- Weak3n: CHAOS JUNGLE → CHAOS SOLO
- Riptzer: CHAOS SOLO → CHAOS SUPPORT
- iRoFFLe: CHAOS SUPPORT → CHAOS MID