CHAOS WIN
05/17/2026 · Match #6 · Conquest
Confirmed by Jalopy on 5/18/2026, 2:32:23 PM
Balance Analysis
Based on 148 prior matchesORDER
38% win prob
Δ 84
CHAOS favored
CHAOS
62% win prob
Order win probChaos win prob
Calibrated model prediction: 0% Order / 100% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
RogueThrone
OVR
ROFFLE Tier
JUNGLE
Amber III PLACEMENT
MISMATCH — Chaos
gap 129 · 68% favored
Weak3n
OVR
Platinum I
JUNGLE
Gold III
ADC
Eclipse feeds
OVR
Amber I PLACEMENT
ADC
Amber III PLACEMENT
MISMATCH — Chaos
gap 61 · 59% favored
Draiden
OVR
Platinum III
ADC
Gold III PLACEMENT
MID
Sink
OVR
Bronze III
MID
Amber III PLACEMENT
MISMATCH — Chaos
gap 89 · 63% favored
Boolougames
OVR
Gold II
MID
Platinum II
SOLO
Hydra
OVR
Bronze I PLACEMENT
SOLO
Bronze III PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 9 · 51% favored
Riptzer
OVR
Obsidian I
SOLO
Amber II
SUPPORT
ItzBedard
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Amber III PLACEMENT
SLIGHT EDGE — Order
gap 26 · 54% favored
iRoFFLe
OVR
ROFFLE Tier
SUPPORT
Dog Shit III
ORDER (LOSS) 24 kills Team Δ -14.4
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE OFF-ROLE | RogueThrone | 5/13/8 | 1.00 | -88 | ▼ -3.6 | -92 | 84 | |
| ADC NEW | Eclipse feeds | 11/7/6 | 2.43 | 11 | ▼ -1.4 | 9 | 1 | |
| MID THIRD | Sink | 4/12/11 | 1.25 | 21 | ▼ -6.0 | 15 | 16 | |
| SOLO SECONDARY | Hydra C | 1/8/9 | 1.25 | 30 | ▼ -2.5 | 28 | 3 | |
| SUPPORT NEW | ItzBedard | 3/7/17 | 2.86 | 0 | ▼ -1.0 | -1 | 0 |
CHAOS (WIN) 38 kills Team Δ +22.9
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Weak3n MVP TOP DMG | 10/4/17 | 6.75 | 110 | ▲ +5.7 | 116 | 148 | |
| ADC OFF-ROLE | Draiden | 11/4/15 | 6.50 | 83 | ▲ +5.5 | 88 | 17 | |
| MID | Boolougames | 7/7/16 | 3.29 | 72 | ▲ +2.8 | 75 | 65 | |
| SOLO THIRD | Riptzer C | 8/4/8 | 4.00 | 168 | ▲ +3.5 | 171 | 98 | |
| SUPPORT | iRoFFLe | 2/5/21 | 4.60 | -37 | ▲ +5.4 | -32 | 32 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 0
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Draiden | Platinum III | Platinum III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Hydra | Bronze I PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | Boolougames | Gold II | Platinum II |
| SOLO | RogueThrone | ROFFLE Tier | Dog Shit I |
| SUPPORT | Sink | Bronze III | Amber III PLACEMENT |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Eclipse feeds | Amber I PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | ItzBedard | rookie | |
| MID | iRoFFLe | ROFFLE Tier | Poo Poo II |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Platinum I | Platinum III PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer | Obsidian I | Obsidian I |
What changed vs actual draft
- RogueThrone: ORDER JUNGLE → ORDER SOLO
- Hydra: ORDER SOLO → ORDER ADC
- Sink: ORDER MID → ORDER SUPPORT
- Boolougames: CHAOS MID → ORDER MID
- Draiden: CHAOS ADC → ORDER JUNGLE
- Eclipse feeds: ORDER ADC → CHAOS JUNGLE
- ItzBedard: ORDER SUPPORT → CHAOS ADC
- Weak3n: CHAOS JUNGLE → CHAOS SOLO
- Riptzer: CHAOS SOLO → CHAOS SUPPORT
- iRoFFLe: CHAOS SUPPORT → CHAOS MID