CHAOS WIN
05/17/2026 · Match #3 · Conquest
Confirmed by Jalopy on 5/18/2026, 2:33:20 PM
Kills
23 – 45
MVP · best KDA
tutone 6/3/15
Biggest Elo gain
OSteg +6.7
Biggest Elo drop
iRoFFLe -8.7
Balance Analysis
Based on 145 prior matchesORDER
50% win prob
Δ 1
Balanced
CHAOS
50% win prob
Order win probChaos win prob
Calibrated model prediction: 100% Order / 0% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
Weak3n
OVR
Diamond III
JUNGLE
Gold II
MISMATCH — Order
gap 67 · 59% favored
AlphaClaps
OVR
Silver II
JUNGLE
Amber III
ADC
KingBopBop
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC
Amber III PLACEMENT
CLEAR EDGE — Order
gap 36 · 55% favored
Jonhy0700
OVR
Poo Poo III
ADC
ROFFLE Tier
MID
Boolougames
OVR
Gold III
MID
Gold I
MISMATCH — Order
gap 81 · 61% favored
tutone
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
MID
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
RogueThrone
OVR
ROFFLE Tier
SOLO
Poo Poo III
SLIGHT EDGE — Chaos
gap 13 · 52% favored
Sink
OVR
Amber II
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
iRoFFLe
OVR
Dog Shit II
SUPPORT
Poo Poo III
SLIGHT EDGE — Chaos
gap 17 · 52% favored
OSteg
OVR
Bronze III
SUPPORT
Amber III PLACEMENT
ORDER (LOSS) 23 kills Team Δ -27.1
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Weak3n | 11/6/8 | 3.17 | 118 | ▼ -2.7 | 115 | 145 | |
| ADC | KingBopBop C | 7/10/8 | 1.50 | -13 | ▼ -5.8 | -19 | 3 | |
| MID | Boolougames | 3/8/7 | 1.25 | 59 | ▼ -7.2 | 52 | 62 | |
| SOLO SECONDARY | RogueThrone | 1/9/11 | 1.33 | -85 | ▼ -2.8 | -88 | 81 | |
| SUPPORT | iRoFFLe | 1/12/8 | 0.75 | -24 | ▼ -8.7 | -33 | 29 |
CHAOS (WIN) 45 kills Team Δ +29.9
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE SECONDARY | AlphaClaps | 13/5/12 | 5.00 | 42 | ▲ +4.8 | 47 | 47 | |
| ADC THIRD | Jonhy0700 TOP DMG | 14/5/16 | 6.00 | -10 | ▲ +5.6 | -5 | 136 | |
| MID NEW | tutone MVP | 6/3/15 | 7.00 | 0 | ▲ +6.4 | 6 | 0 | |
| SOLO OFF-ROLE | Sink C | 7/4/18 | 6.25 | 8 | ▲ +6.5 | 14 | 13 | |
| SUPPORT THIRD | OSteg | 5/6/28 | 5.50 | 21 | ▲ +6.7 | 27 | 63 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 0
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | KingBopBop | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Sink | Amber II | Amber I PLACEMENT |
| MID | RogueThrone | ROFFLE Tier | Dog Shit III |
| SOLO | Jonhy0700 | Poo Poo III | Bronze III |
| SUPPORT | Weak3n | Diamond III | Gold II |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | tutone | rookie | |
| ADC | iRoFFLe | Dog Shit II | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | Boolougames | Gold III | Gold I |
| SOLO | OSteg | Bronze III | Silver II |
| SUPPORT | AlphaClaps | Silver II | Bronze I PLACEMENT |
What changed vs actual draft
- KingBopBop: ORDER ADC → ORDER JUNGLE
- Weak3n: ORDER JUNGLE → ORDER SUPPORT
- RogueThrone: ORDER SOLO → ORDER MID
- Jonhy0700: CHAOS ADC → ORDER SOLO
- Sink: CHAOS SOLO → ORDER ADC
- Boolougames: ORDER MID → CHAOS MID
- iRoFFLe: ORDER SUPPORT → CHAOS ADC
- OSteg: CHAOS SUPPORT → CHAOS SOLO
- AlphaClaps: CHAOS JUNGLE → CHAOS SUPPORT
- tutone: CHAOS MID → CHAOS JUNGLE