ORDER WIN
UPSET
05/17/2026 · Match #2 · Conquest
Confirmed by Jalopy on 5/18/2026, 1:45:06 PM
Kills
35 – 25
MVP · best KDA
OSteg 8/2/16
Biggest Elo gain
OSteg +14.9
Biggest Elo drop
Boolougames -8.2
Balance Analysis
Based on 144 prior matchesORDER
44% win prob
Δ 45
Lean CHAOS
UPSET — underdog won
CHAOS
56% win prob
Order win probChaos win prob
Calibrated model prediction: 0% Order / 100% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
Draiden
OVR
Gold I
JUNGLE
Amber III PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 8 · 51% favored
Room40
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
JUNGLE
Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC
i cant read
OVR
Amber III
ADC
Amber II
EVEN
gap 6 · 51% favored
Weak3n
OVR
Diamond II
ADC
Amber I
MID
Jonhy0700
OVR
Poo Poo III
MID
Poo Poo II
MISMATCH — Chaos
gap 97 · 64% favored
Boolougames
OVR
Gold II
MID
Platinum III
SOLO
OSteg
OVR
Amber II
SOLO
Bronze I
EVEN
gap 3 · 50% favored
AlphaClaps
OVR
Silver II
SOLO
Bronze II
SUPPORT
RogueThrone
OVR
ROFFLE Tier
SUPPORT
Amber III PLACEMENT
CLEAR EDGE — Chaos
gap 41 · 56% favored
iRoFFLe
OVR
Dog Shit II
SUPPORT
Poo Poo III
ORDER (WIN) 35 kills Team Δ +33.9
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE OFF-ROLE | Draiden | 13/4/15 | 7.00 | 80 | ▲ +8.1 | 88 | 15 | |
| ADC | i cant read | 7/5/8 | 3.00 | 2 | ▲ +3.4 | 6 | 30 | |
| MID THIRD | Jonhy0700 | 5/7/16 | 3.00 | -13 | ▲ +3.3 | -10 | 135 | |
| SOLO SECONDARY | OSteg MVP | 8/2/16 | 12.00 | 6 | ▲ +14.9 | 21 | 62 | |
| SUPPORT OFF-ROLE | RogueThrone C | 2/7/17 | 2.71 | -90 | ▲ +4.2 | -85 | 80 |
CHAOS (LOSS) 25 kills Team Δ -28.7
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE SECONDARY | Room40 | 6/7/13 | 2.71 | -6 | ▼ -6.2 | -13 | 5 | |
| ADC OFF-ROLE | Weak3n | 7/8/5 | 1.50 | 123 | ▼ -5.2 | 118 | 144 | |
| MID | Boolougames | 2/8/15 | 2.13 | 67 | ▼ -8.2 | 59 | 61 | |
| SOLO SECONDARY | AlphaClaps C TOP DMG | 7/8/12 | 2.38 | 49 | ▼ -6.4 | 42 | 46 | |
| SUPPORT | iRoFFLe | 3/4/16 | 4.75 | -21 | ▼ -2.7 | -24 | 28 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 0
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Room40 | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | i cant read | Amber III | Amber II |
| MID | Boolougames | Gold II | Platinum III |
| SOLO | Jonhy0700 | Poo Poo III | Bronze III |
| SUPPORT | AlphaClaps | Silver II | Bronze I PLACEMENT |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | OSteg | Amber II | Amber II PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Draiden | Gold I | Gold III PLACEMENT |
| MID | RogueThrone | ROFFLE Tier | Dog Shit III |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Diamond II | Platinum II PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | iRoFFLe | Dog Shit II | Poo Poo III |
What changed vs actual draft
- Jonhy0700: ORDER MID → ORDER SOLO
- Room40: CHAOS JUNGLE → ORDER JUNGLE
- Boolougames: CHAOS MID → ORDER MID
- AlphaClaps: CHAOS SOLO → ORDER SUPPORT
- RogueThrone: ORDER SUPPORT → CHAOS MID
- OSteg: ORDER SOLO → CHAOS JUNGLE
- Draiden: ORDER JUNGLE → CHAOS ADC
- Weak3n: CHAOS ADC → CHAOS SOLO