05/07/2026 · Match #4 · Conquest CONFIRMED
Confirmed by Jalopy on 5/8/2026, 12:01:42 PM
ORDER WIN · Weak3n: WITH · Length: 28:20
VOD: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/2766670259?t=02h20m00s @ 8400s
Balance Analysis
Based on 121 prior matchesORDER
51% win prob
Δ 6
Balanced
CHAOS
49% win prob
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
Weak3n
OVR
Diamond I
JUNGLE
Gold III
CLEAR EDGE — Order
gap 54 · 58% favored
Sink
OVR
Amber I
JUNGLE
Amber I PLACEMENT
ADC
OSteg
OVR
Poo Poo II
ADC
Amber III PLACEMENT
CLEAR EDGE — Chaos
gap 56 · 58% favored
Kryooo
OVR
Platinum III
ADC
Silver III
MID
ELLEONTTV
OVR
Amber I PLACEMENT
MID
Amber I PLACEMENT
MISMATCH — Chaos
gap 114 · 66% favored
Boolougames
OVR
Diamond II
MID
Diamond II
SOLO
AlphaClaps
OVR
Bronze II
SOLO
Bronze I
EVEN
gap 8 · 51% favored
Jonhy0700
OVR
Bronze III
SOLO
Bronze II
SUPPORT
Riptzer
OVR
Diamond III
SUPPORT
Diamond II
MISMATCH — Order
gap 113 · 66% favored
leoorchild
OVR
Bronze III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Amber I PLACEMENT
ORDER (WIN) Team Δ +29.5
| Role | Player | God | K | D | A | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Weak3n | Fenrir | 6 | 0 | 22 | 132 | +9.4 | 142 | 121 |
| ADC THIRD | OSteg | Ishtar | 10 | 3 | 6 | -6 | +2.0 | -4 | 49 |
| MID THIRD | ELLEONTTV TOP DMG | Ganesha | 13 | 1 | 8 | 14 | +7.7 | 22 | 7 |
| SOLO | AlphaClaps C | Hua Mulan | 4 | 6 | 10 | 27 | +1.7 | 29 | 38 |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer | Geb | 1 | 0 | 17 | 119 | +8.7 | 127 | 83 |
CHAOS (LOSS) Team Δ -23.7
| Role | Player | God | K | D | A | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Sink C | Mercury | 5 | 8 | 2 | 14 | -1.3 | 12 | 10 |
| ADC | Kryooo | Hou Yi | 2 | 6 | 1 | 83 | -4.5 | 79 | 63 |
| MID | Boolougames | Scylla | 0 | 5 | 1 | 121 | -13.4 | 107 | 45 |
| SOLO THIRD | Jonhy0700 | Hades | 2 | 7 | 3 | 20 | -1.6 | 19 | 113 |
| SUPPORT THIRD | leoorchild | Ymir | 1 | 8 | 2 | 19 | -2.8 | 16 | 9 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 1
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | OSteg | Poo Poo II | Amber II PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Sink | Amber I | Amber I PLACEMENT |
| MID | ELLEONTTV | Amber I PLACEMENT | Amber I PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Diamond I | Platinum II PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer | Diamond III | Diamond II |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | leoorchild | Bronze III PLACEMENT | Bronze III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | AlphaClaps | Bronze II | Bronze II PLACEMENT |
| MID | Boolougames | Diamond II | Diamond II |
| SOLO | Jonhy0700 | Bronze III | Bronze II |
| SUPPORT | Kryooo | Platinum III | Silver III PLACEMENT |
What changed vs actual draft
- Weak3n: ORDER JUNGLE → ORDER SOLO
- OSteg: ORDER ADC → ORDER JUNGLE
- Sink: CHAOS JUNGLE → ORDER ADC
- AlphaClaps: ORDER SOLO → CHAOS ADC
- leoorchild: CHAOS SUPPORT → CHAOS JUNGLE
- Kryooo: CHAOS ADC → CHAOS SUPPORT