ORDER WIN
UPSET
05/03/2026 · Match #3 · Conquest
Confirmed by Jalopy on 5/4/2026, 1:58:50 PM
Kills
40 – 15
MVP · best KDA
Edgewing 4/1/24
Biggest Elo gain
Edgewing +22.1
Biggest Elo drop
OSteg -14.4
Balance Analysis
Based on 96 prior matchesORDER
38% win prob
Δ 87
CHAOS favored
UPSET — underdog won
CHAOS
62% win prob
Order win probChaos win prob
Calibrated model prediction: 0% Order / 100% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
Jonhy0700
OVR
Bronze II
JUNGLE
Poo Poo III
MISMATCH — Chaos
gap 90 · 63% favored
Weak3n
OVR
Diamond I
JUNGLE
Gold I
ADC
Kryooo
OVR
Bronze II
ADC
Bronze III
SLIGHT EDGE — Order
gap 23 · 53% favored
OSteg
OVR
Amber II
ADC
Amber III PLACEMENT
MID
RogueThrone
OVR
ROFFLE Tier
MID
ROFFLE Tier
CLEAR EDGE — Chaos
gap 50 · 57% favored
[CopebbyEsports] MindyRox420
OVR
Bronze III
MID
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Giftie
OVR
Bronze II PLACEMENT
SOLO
Bronze II PLACEMENT
CLEAR EDGE — Order
gap 40 · 56% favored
Riptzer
OVR
Platinum I
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Edgewing
OVR
ROFFLE Tier
SUPPORT
Amber III PLACEMENT
MISMATCH — Chaos
gap 108 · 65% favored
sillyslother
OVR
Gold I
SUPPORT
Gold II
ORDER (WIN) 40 kills Team Δ +37.4
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Jonhy0700 C | 10/5/11 | 4.20 | 25 | ▲ +2.6 | 28 | 88 | |
| ADC | Kryooo | 11/2/11 | 11.00 | 25 | ▲ +6.7 | 32 | 47 | |
| MID SECONDARY | RogueThrone TOP DMG | 7/4/16 | 5.75 | -131 | ▲ +3.4 | -128 | 62 | |
| SOLO | Giftie | 8/4/9 | 4.25 | 27 | ▲ +2.6 | 29 | 6 | |
| SUPPORT SECONDARY | Edgewing MVP | 4/1/24 | 28.00 | -35 | ▲ +22.1 | -13 | 16 |
CHAOS (LOSS) 15 kills Team Δ -37.4
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Weak3n | 7/6/4 | 1.83 | 138 | ▼ -3.7 | 135 | 96 | |
| ADC THIRD | OSteg | 2/10/3 | 0.50 | 9 | ▼ -14.4 | -6 | 48 | |
| MID SECONDARY | [CopebbyEsports] MindyRox420 | 2/9/6 | 0.89 | 19 | ▼ -8.2 | 10 | 22 | |
| SOLO THIRD | Riptzer | 3/7/5 | 1.14 | 103 | ▼ -5.8 | 97 | 62 | |
| SUPPORT | sillyslother C | 1/8/7 | 1.00 | 79 | ▼ -5.3 | 74 | 54 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 0
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | [CopebbyEsports] MindyRox420 | Bronze III | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | sillyslother | Gold I | Silver III PLACEMENT |
| MID | Giftie | Bronze II PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | RogueThrone | ROFFLE Tier | Dog Shit II |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer | Platinum I | Diamond III |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | OSteg | Amber II | Amber II PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Edgewing | ROFFLE Tier | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | Kryooo | Bronze II | Bronze II PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Diamond I | Platinum II PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Jonhy0700 | Bronze II | Amber III PLACEMENT |
What changed vs actual draft
- Giftie: ORDER SOLO → ORDER MID
- RogueThrone: ORDER MID → ORDER SOLO
- [CopebbyEsports] MindyRox420: CHAOS MID → ORDER JUNGLE
- sillyslother: CHAOS SUPPORT → ORDER ADC
- Riptzer: CHAOS SOLO → ORDER SUPPORT
- Edgewing: ORDER SUPPORT → CHAOS ADC
- Jonhy0700: ORDER JUNGLE → CHAOS SUPPORT
- Kryooo: ORDER ADC → CHAOS MID
- Weak3n: CHAOS JUNGLE → CHAOS SOLO
- OSteg: CHAOS ADC → CHAOS JUNGLE
Notes / Flags
- OSteg [shitter]: feeder