ORDER WIN
UPSET
05/03/2026 · Match #2 · Conquest
Confirmed by Jalopy on 5/4/2026, 1:43:49 PM
Kills
33 – 17
MVP · best KDA
Giftie 7/2/14
Biggest Elo gain
Giftie +12.1
Biggest Elo drop
OSteg -17.0
Balance Analysis
Based on 95 prior matchesORDER
39% win prob
Δ 80
CHAOS favored
UPSET — underdog won
CHAOS
61% win prob
Order win probChaos win prob
Calibrated model prediction: 0% Order / 100% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
Jonhy0700
OVR
Bronze III
JUNGLE
Dog Shit I
SLIGHT EDGE — Chaos
gap 12 · 52% favored
sillyslother
OVR
Gold I
JUNGLE
Poo Poo I
ADC
Kryooo
OVR
Bronze III
ADC
Amber I
EVEN
gap 0 · 50% favored
Weak3n
OVR
Diamond I
ADC
Amber I PLACEMENT
MID
RogueThrone
OVR
ROFFLE Tier
MID
ROFFLE Tier
CLEAR EDGE — Chaos
gap 55 · 58% favored
OSteg
OVR
Bronze II
MID
Poo Poo I
SOLO
Giftie
OVR
Amber I PLACEMENT
SOLO
Amber I PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 9 · 51% favored
Zikze
OVR
Amber II PLACEMENT
SOLO
Amber II PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Jalopy
OVR
Silver II
SUPPORT
Bronze II
MISMATCH — Chaos
gap 90 · 63% favored
Riptzer
OVR
Platinum I
SUPPORT
Diamond III
ORDER (WIN) 33 kills Team Δ +36.8
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Jonhy0700 | 10/5/10 | 4.00 | 21 | ▲ +4.3 | 25 | 87 | |
| ADC | Kryooo | 4/3/11 | 5.00 | 20 | ▲ +4.9 | 25 | 46 | |
| MID SECONDARY | RogueThrone C TOP DMG | 7/3/15 | 7.33 | -139 | ▲ +7.6 | -131 | 61 | |
| SOLO | Giftie MVP | 7/2/14 | 10.50 | 15 | ▲ +12.1 | 27 | 5 | |
| SUPPORT | Jalopy | 5/4/19 | 6.00 | 43 | ▲ +8.0 | 51 | 14 |
CHAOS (LOSS) 17 kills Team Δ -34.1
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE SECONDARY | sillyslother | 6/5/5 | 2.20 | 82 | ▼ -2.6 | 79 | 53 | |
| ADC OFF-ROLE | Weak3n | 4/6/2 | 1.00 | 141 | ▼ -2.7 | 138 | 95 | |
| MID SECONDARY | OSteg C | 0/8/3 | 0.38 | 26 | ▼ -17.0 | 9 | 47 | |
| SOLO NEW | Zikze | 2/7/4 | 0.86 | 6 | ▼ -6.3 | -1 | 1 | |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer | 5/7/3 | 1.14 | 108 | ▼ -5.6 | 103 | 61 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 0
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Giftie | Amber I PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Zikze | Amber II PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | Kryooo | Bronze III | Bronze II PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | OSteg | Bronze II | Bronze II PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer | Platinum I | Diamond III |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Jalopy | Silver II | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | RogueThrone | ROFFLE Tier | ROFFLE Tier |
| MID | Jonhy0700 | Bronze III | Bronze III |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Diamond I | Platinum II PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | sillyslother | Gold I | Gold II |
What changed vs actual draft
- Giftie: ORDER SOLO → ORDER JUNGLE
- Kryooo: ORDER ADC → ORDER MID
- Riptzer: CHAOS SUPPORT → ORDER SUPPORT
- OSteg: CHAOS MID → ORDER SOLO
- Zikze: CHAOS SOLO → ORDER ADC
- Jalopy: ORDER SUPPORT → CHAOS JUNGLE
- Jonhy0700: ORDER JUNGLE → CHAOS MID
- RogueThrone: ORDER MID → CHAOS ADC
- Weak3n: CHAOS ADC → CHAOS SOLO
- sillyslother: CHAOS JUNGLE → CHAOS SUPPORT
Notes / Flags
- OSteg [weak3n_said]: this build is just getting worse and fucking worse
- OSteg [weak3n_said]: This is criminal behavior
- OSteg [shitter]: horrible build