04/30/2026 · Match #3 · Conquest CONFIRMED
Confirmed by Jalopy on 5/1/2026, 3:21:01 PM
CHAOS WIN · Weak3n: WITH · F6 by ORDER · Length: 25:50
VOD: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/2761100091?t=01h48m43s @ 6523s
Balance Analysis
Based on 90 prior matchesORDER
45% win prob
Δ 32
Lean CHAOS
CHAOS
55% win prob
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
Weak3n
OVR
Obsidian I
JUNGLE
Platinum II
MISMATCH — Order
gap 115 · 66% favored
sillyslother
OVR
Gold I
JUNGLE
Dog Shit I
ADC
RogueThrone
OVR
ROFFLE Tier
ADC
ROFFLE Tier
CLEAR EDGE — Chaos
gap 53 · 58% favored
Riptzer
OVR
Gold II
ADC
Amber III PLACEMENT
MID
Tricky
OVR
ROFFLE Tier
MID
Amber III PLACEMENT
CLEAR EDGE — Chaos
gap 33 · 55% favored
DeltaJulz613
OVR
Bronze III
MID
Poo Poo II
SOLO
Shmeep
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 0 · 50% favored
Jordi
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
OSteg
OVR
Bronze III
SUPPORT
Amber II PLACEMENT
SLIGHT EDGE — Chaos
gap 20 · 53% favored
[CopebbyEsports] MindyRox420
OVR
Amber I
SUPPORT
Bronze II PLACEMENT
ORDER (LOSS) Team Δ -26.0
| Role | Player | God | K | D | A | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Weak3n F6er | Ishtar | 2 | 8 | 1 | 168 | -8.7 | 159 | 90 |
| ADC | RogueThrone TOP DMG F6er | Hou Yi | 6 | 6 | 3 | -133 | -2.1 | -136 | 56 |
| MID SECONDARY | Tricky C F6er | Merlin | 3 | 4 | 2 | -37 | -2.7 | -40 | 18 |
| SOLO NEW | Shmeep F6er | Nemesis | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | -11.3 | -12 | 2 |
| SUPPORT THIRD | OSteg F6er | Yemoja | 0 | 5 | 5 | 22 | -1.2 | 20 | 43 |
CHAOS (WIN) Team Δ +27.2
| Role | Player | God | K | D | A | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE SECONDARY | sillyslother C STOMPER | Kali | 4 | 3 | 6 | 78 | +1.8 | 80 | 49 |
| ADC THIRD | Riptzer STOMPER | Cernunnos | 10 | 4 | 8 | 71 | +2.5 | 73 | 56 |
| MID | DeltaJulz613 STOMPER | Nut | 5 | 1 | 8 | 17 | +7.0 | 24 | 24 |
| SOLO NEW | Jordi STOMPER | Poseidon | 3 | 1 | 15 | 0 | +11.2 | 11 | 0 |
| SUPPORT SECONDARY | [CopebbyEsports] MindyRox420 STOMPER | Cupid | 5 | 2 | 10 | 12 | +4.7 | 17 | 20 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 0
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | [CopebbyEsports] MindyRox420 | Amber I | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Tricky | ROFFLE Tier | Amber I PLACEMENT |
| MID | Shmeep | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | DeltaJulz613 | Bronze III | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer | Gold II | Platinum III |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | OSteg | Bronze III | Amber II PLACEMENT |
| ADC | RogueThrone | ROFFLE Tier | ROFFLE Tier |
| MID | Jordi | rookie | |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Obsidian I | Platinum II PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | sillyslother | Gold I | Gold I |
What changed vs actual draft
- Shmeep: ORDER SOLO → ORDER MID
- Tricky: ORDER MID → ORDER ADC
- [CopebbyEsports] MindyRox420: CHAOS SUPPORT → ORDER JUNGLE
- Riptzer: CHAOS ADC → ORDER SUPPORT
- DeltaJulz613: CHAOS MID → ORDER SOLO
- Weak3n: ORDER JUNGLE → CHAOS SOLO
- RogueThrone: ORDER ADC → CHAOS ADC
- OSteg: ORDER SUPPORT → CHAOS JUNGLE
- sillyslother: CHAOS JUNGLE → CHAOS SUPPORT
- Jordi: CHAOS SOLO → CHAOS MID
Notes / Flags
- Shmeep [shitter]: didnt rotate to fights
- OSteg [weak3n_said]: not having a stampede against their team is dumb as fuck
- OSteg [weak3n_said]: I don't think ayo has hit a stun this game
- OSteg [shitter]: bad build and many missed abilities