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04/21/2026 · Match #24 · Conquest UNCONFIRMED

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ORDER WIN · Weak3n: WITH

VOD: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/2753124660?t=3h28m25s @ 12505s

Balance Analysis

Based on 21 prior matches

ORDER

20

47% win prob

Δ 18

Balanced

CHAOS

38

53% win prob

ORDER (WIN) Team Δ +119.2

Role	Player	God	K	D	A	Elo Before	Δ	Elo After	Games
ADC OFF-ROLE	Weak3n	Ullr	7	4	11	52	+24.5	77	21
SUPPORT OFF-ROLE	RogueThrone	Hou Yi	9	4	5	-44	+22.5	-21	14
SOLO OFF-ROLE	sillyslother	Agni	10	2	11	59	+34.1	93	13
JUNGLE NEW	Grease.	Baron Samedi	0	5	21	30	+17.7	48	2
MID NEW	Ullr	Ne Zha	6	3	12	0	+20.4	20	0

CHAOS (LOSS) Team Δ -60.2

Role	Player	God	K	D	A	Elo Before	Δ	Elo After	Games
SUPPORT	iRoFFLe	Chiron	3	6	5	-6	-13.5	-20	8
JUNGLE NEW	Spideydoo	Sylvanus	2	7	10	16	-14.1	2	1
MID OFF-ROLE	Horrify	Anubis	2	6	3	87	-9.5	78	7
ADC SECONDARY	Jonhy0700	Loki	7	7	4	21	-12.6	9	20
SOLO OFF-ROLE	OSteg	Morgan Le Fay	4	6	7	71	-10.6	60	13

Elo: K=32 base · off-role wins boosted, off-role losses softened · stomps (F6) +25%

Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split

ORDER

28

50% win prob

Δ 1

most balanced split

CHAOS

29

50% win prob

ORDER · optimal

Role	Player	Elo
ADC	Jonhy0700	21
SUPPORT	RogueThrone	-44
SOLO	sillyslother	59
JUNGLE	Spideydoo	16
MID	Horrify	87

CHAOS · optimal

Role	Player	Elo
ADC	Weak3n	52
SUPPORT	iRoFFLe	-6
SOLO	OSteg	71
JUNGLE	Grease.	30
MID	Ullr	rookie

What changed vs actual draft

Jonhy0700: CHAOS ADC → ORDER ADC
Spideydoo: CHAOS JUNGLE → ORDER JUNGLE
Horrify: CHAOS MID → ORDER MID

Notes / Flags

RogueThrone [weak3n_said]: I love when my Duo Lanes get all of the lead then dies with Ult Up
sillyslother [weak3n_said]: Brother, were calling out this fight ahead of time and you're never there
sillyslother [weak3n_said]: You need to come to backs when there Invading WAY FASTER