CHAOS WIN
07/15/2026 · Match #6 · Conquest
Balance Analysis
Based on 219 prior matchesORDER
46% win prob
Δ 26
Lean CHAOS
CHAOS
54% win prob
Order win probChaos win prob
Calibrated model prediction: 0% Order / 100% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
Horrify
OVR
Silver I
JUNGLE
Amber III PLACEMENT
MISMATCH — Chaos
gap 79 · 61% favored
Weak3n
OVR
Diamond I
JUNGLE
Gold II
ADC
Kryooo
OVR
Obsidian II
ADC
Silver III
MISMATCH — Order
gap 101 · 64% favored
i cant read
OVR
ROFFLE Tier
ADC
ROFFLE Tier
MID
Malenia
OVR
Poo Poo I
MID
Poo Poo I
SLIGHT EDGE — Order
gap 18 · 53% favored
OSteg
OVR
Bronze III
MID
Dog Shit I
SOLO
Puninstall
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
SLIGHT EDGE — Chaos
gap 11 · 52% favored
Bibby
OVR
Bronze III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Amber I PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Spoon
OVR
Poo Poo II
SUPPORT
Amber III PLACEMENT
MISMATCH — Chaos
gap 272 · 83% favored
Riptzer
OVR
Master I
SUPPORT
Demigod
ORDER (LOSS) 11 kills Team Δ -22.7
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE OFF-ROLE | Horrify | 1/6/5 | 1.00 | 52 | ▼ -3.3 | 49 | 51 | |
| ADC | Kryooo | 1/3/1 | 0.67 | 157 | ▼ -9.3 | 148 | 106 | |
| MID | Malenia | 4/3/5 | 3.00 | 0 | ▼ -2.1 | -3 | 11 | |
| SOLO NEW | Puninstall | 2/4/2 | 1.00 | 0 | ▼ -6.2 | -6 | 0 | |
| SUPPORT THIRD | Spoon | 3/5/5 | 1.60 | -5 | ▼ -1.8 | -7 | 17 |
CHAOS (WIN) 21 kills Team Δ +27.8
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Weak3n | 6/4/11 | 4.25 | 140 | ▲ +3.1 | 143 | 219 | |
| ADC | i cant read | 4/0/7 | 11.00 | -64 | ▲ +7.8 | -56 | 74 | |
| MID SECONDARY | OSteg | 6/3/6 | 4.00 | 21 | ▲ +3.0 | 24 | 100 | |
| SOLO | Bibby MVP | 2/1/9 | 11.00 | 18 | ▲ +9.3 | 27 | 6 | |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer | 3/3/12 | 5.00 | 217 | ▲ +4.6 | 222 | 144 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 1
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | i cant read | ROFFLE Tier | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Puninstall | rookie | |
| MID | Spoon | Poo Poo II | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Diamond I | Platinum II PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer | Master I | Demigod |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Malenia | Poo Poo I | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Bibby | Bronze III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | Horrify | Silver I | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | OSteg | Bronze III | Silver I |
| SUPPORT | Kryooo | Obsidian II | Gold II PLACEMENT |
What changed vs actual draft
- Spoon: ORDER SUPPORT → ORDER MID
- Puninstall: ORDER SOLO → ORDER ADC
- Weak3n: CHAOS JUNGLE → ORDER SOLO
- Riptzer: CHAOS SUPPORT → ORDER SUPPORT
- i cant read: CHAOS ADC → ORDER JUNGLE
- Kryooo: ORDER ADC → CHAOS SUPPORT
- Horrify: ORDER JUNGLE → CHAOS MID
- Malenia: ORDER MID → CHAOS JUNGLE
- Bibby: CHAOS SOLO → CHAOS ADC
- OSteg: CHAOS MID → CHAOS SOLO
Notes / Flags
- Weak3n [general]: top
- Riptzer [general]: cap
- Horrify [general]: cap