ORDER WIN
UPSET
06/29/2026 · Match #2 · Conquest
Kills
44 – 17
MVP · best KDA
Weak3n 17/1/12
Biggest Elo gain
Weak3n +15.4
Biggest Elo drop
Kryooo -8.7
Balance Analysis
Based on 192 prior matchesORDER
46% win prob
Δ 28
Lean CHAOS
UPSET — underdog won
CHAOS
54% win prob
Order win probChaos win prob
Calibrated model prediction: 83% Order / 17% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
Shmeep
OVR
Poo Poo II
JUNGLE
Amber III PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 8 · 51% favored
SSaiyanBlu
OVR
Dog Shit III
JUNGLE
Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC
Tricky
OVR
ROFFLE Tier
ADC
Poo Poo III
CLEAR EDGE — Chaos
gap 41 · 56% favored
Kryooo
OVR
Obsidian III
ADC
Bronze I
MID
Weak3n
OVR
Gold I
MID
Amber III
EVEN
gap 9 · 51% favored
Jonhy0700
OVR
Platinum II
MID
Poo Poo I
SOLO
Spoon
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
SLIGHT EDGE — Chaos
gap 24 · 53% favored
Rebel
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Riptzer
OVR
Master III
SUPPORT
Master II
MISMATCH — Order
gap 195 · 75% favored
ELLEONTTV
OVR
Gold I
SUPPORT
Amber I PLACEMENT
ORDER (WIN) 44 kills Team Δ +32.4
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE OFF-ROLE | Shmeep | 11/4/14 | 6.25 | -7 | ▲ +3.2 | -4 | 12 | |
| ADC | Tricky | 6/6/6 | 2.00 | -63 | ▲ +1.9 | -61 | 40 | |
| MID THIRD | Weak3n MVP | 17/1/12 | 29.00 | 77 | ▲ +15.4 | 93 | 192 | |
| SOLO | Spoon | 7/0/11 | 18.00 | -27 | ▲ +9.8 | -17 | 7 | |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer | 3/6/15 | 3.00 | 182 | ▲ +2.0 | 184 | 126 |
CHAOS (LOSS) 17 kills Team Δ -26.1
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE SECONDARY | SSaiyanBlu | 7/6/7 | 2.33 | -27 | ▼ -1.6 | -29 | 20 | |
| ADC | Kryooo | 2/11/3 | 0.45 | 151 | ▼ -8.7 | 143 | 89 | |
| MID THIRD | Jonhy0700 | 3/13/4 | 0.54 | 98 | ▼ -7.2 | 90 | 164 | |
| SOLO NEW | Rebel | 0/7/1 | 0.14 | 4 | ▼ -6.2 | -2 | 1 | |
| SUPPORT SECONDARY | ELLEONTTV | 5/7/6 | 1.57 | 74 | ▼ -2.3 | 72 | 23 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 0
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Spoon | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | SSaiyanBlu | Dog Shit III | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | Rebel | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Gold I | Platinum II PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer | Master III | Master II |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Shmeep | Poo Poo II | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Tricky | ROFFLE Tier | Poo Poo III |
| MID | Kryooo | Obsidian III | Bronze I PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | ELLEONTTV | Gold I | Silver II PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Jonhy0700 | Platinum II | Amber II PLACEMENT |
What changed vs actual draft
- Spoon: ORDER SOLO → ORDER JUNGLE
- Weak3n: ORDER MID → ORDER SOLO
- SSaiyanBlu: CHAOS JUNGLE → ORDER ADC
- Rebel: CHAOS SOLO → ORDER MID
- Shmeep: ORDER JUNGLE → CHAOS JUNGLE
- Tricky: ORDER ADC → CHAOS ADC
- ELLEONTTV: CHAOS SUPPORT → CHAOS SOLO
- Jonhy0700: CHAOS MID → CHAOS SUPPORT
- Kryooo: CHAOS ADC → CHAOS MID
Notes / Flags
- ELLEONTTV [general]: cap
- Riptzer [general]: cap
- Rebel [shitter]: 6k dmg 30 min game