ORDER WIN
05/28/2026 · Match #1 · Conquest
Confirmed by Jalopy on 5/29/2026, 6:02:07 PM
Kills
38 – 21
MVP · best KDA
Shmeep 14/2/10
Biggest Elo gain
Shmeep +9.1
Biggest Elo drop
OSteg -6.4
Balance Analysis
Based on 179 prior matchesORDER
48% win prob
Δ 15
Balanced
CHAOS
52% win prob
Order win probChaos win prob
Calibrated model prediction: 68% Order / 32% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
Bioskyz
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
JUNGLE
Amber III PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 7 · 51% favored
Weak3n
OVR
Gold III
JUNGLE
Amber II
ADC
Shmeep
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC
Amber III PLACEMENT
CLEAR EDGE — Chaos
gap 37 · 55% favored
Jalopy
OVR
Platinum III
ADC
Bronze I PLACEMENT
MID
LordSlatysteak
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
MID
Amber III PLACEMENT
CLEAR EDGE — Chaos
gap 53 · 58% favored
ItzStallone
OVR
Gold II
MID
Silver I
SOLO
Bibby
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
CLEAR EDGE — Chaos
gap 49 · 57% favored
OSteg
OVR
Amber I
SOLO
Silver II
SUPPORT
Riptzer
OVR
Obsidian I
SUPPORT
Master III
MISMATCH — Order
gap 188 · 75% favored
iRoFFLe
OVR
Poo Poo II
SUPPORT
Amber III
ORDER (WIN) 38 kills Team Δ +31.3
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE NEW | Bioskyz | 5/10/14 | 1.90 | 0 | ▲ +1.8 | 2 | 2 | |
| ADC SECONDARY | Shmeep MVP | 14/2/10 | 12.00 | -13 | ▲ +9.1 | -4 | 9 | |
| MID NEW | LordSlatysteak C TOP DMG | 10/4/13 | 5.75 | 0 | ▲ +4.2 | 4 | 0 | |
| SOLO | Bibby | 5/2/14 | 9.50 | -5 | ▲ +7.6 | 3 | 3 | |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer | 4/3/23 | 9.00 | 172 | ▲ +8.5 | 181 | 123 |
CHAOS (LOSS) 21 kills Team Δ -22.4
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Weak3n | 9/5/6 | 3.00 | 58 | ▼ -2.8 | 55 | 179 | |
| ADC THIRD | Jalopy | 4/6/7 | 1.83 | 91 | ▼ -2.5 | 88 | 24 | |
| MID | ItzStallone C | 7/7/5 | 1.71 | 72 | ▼ -5.0 | 67 | 34 | |
| SOLO SECONDARY | OSteg | 1/10/5 | 0.60 | 13 | ▼ -6.4 | 7 | 85 | |
| SUPPORT | iRoFFLe | 0/10/11 | 1.10 | -7 | ▼ -5.6 | -13 | 40 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 0
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Jalopy | Platinum III | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Bibby | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | Shmeep | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | OSteg | Amber I | Silver II |
| SUPPORT | Weak3n | Gold III | Gold II |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | iRoFFLe | Poo Poo II | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | LordSlatysteak | rookie | |
| MID | Bioskyz | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | ItzStallone | Gold II | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer | Obsidian I | Master III |
What changed vs actual draft
- Bibby: ORDER SOLO → ORDER ADC
- Shmeep: ORDER ADC → ORDER MID
- Jalopy: CHAOS ADC → ORDER JUNGLE
- Weak3n: CHAOS JUNGLE → ORDER SUPPORT
- OSteg: CHAOS SOLO → ORDER SOLO
- Riptzer: ORDER SUPPORT → CHAOS SUPPORT
- Bioskyz: ORDER JUNGLE → CHAOS MID
- LordSlatysteak: ORDER MID → CHAOS ADC
- ItzStallone: CHAOS MID → CHAOS SOLO
- iRoFFLe: CHAOS SUPPORT → CHAOS JUNGLE