05/18/2026 · Match #4 · Conquest CONFIRMED
Confirmed by Jalopy on 5/19/2026, 1:39:53 PM
CHAOS WIN · Weak3n: WITH · Length: 48:02
VOD: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/2775409914?t=03h12m05s @ 11525s
Balance Analysis
Based on 152 prior matchesORDER
44% win prob
Δ 43
Lean CHAOS
CHAOS
56% win prob
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
InspectorCody
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
JUNGLE
Amber III PLACEMENT
MISMATCH — Chaos
gap 68 · 60% favored
Weak3n
OVR
Diamond III
JUNGLE
Gold II
ADC
Tricky
OVR
ROFFLE Tier
ADC
Amber II
CLEAR EDGE — Order
gap 38 · 55% favored
Jonhy0700
OVR
Bronze III
ADC
ROFFLE Tier
MID
Boolougames
OVR
Gold II
MID
Platinum III
MISMATCH — Order
gap 94 · 63% favored
onetimemite5084
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
MID
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
CashoutSinai
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
SLIGHT EDGE — Chaos
gap 11 · 52% favored
SSaiyanBlu
OVR
Amber I PLACEMENT
SOLO
Amber I PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Draiden
OVR
Platinum III
SUPPORT
Silver II PLACEMENT
MISMATCH — Chaos
gap 130 · 68% favored
Riptzer
OVR
Obsidian I
SUPPORT
Obsidian I
ORDER (LOSS) Team Δ -24.0
| Role | Player | God | K | D | A | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE OFF-ROLE | InspectorCody | Tsukuyomi | 15 | 14 | 13 | -14 | -2.2 | -16 | 3 |
| ADC | Tricky | Anhur | 8 | 19 | 7 | -46 | -11.2 | -57 | 30 |
| MID | Boolougames TOP DMG | Discordia | 9 | 8 | 20 | 67 | -2.6 | 65 | 69 |
| SOLO NEW | CashoutSinai | Thor | 7 | 12 | 18 | 0 | -4.0 | -4 | 0 |
| SUPPORT | Draiden C | Charon | 6 | 15 | 21 | 88 | -4.1 | 84 | 18 |
CHAOS (WIN) Team Δ +26.3
| Role | Player | God | K | D | A | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Weak3n | Baron Samedi | 23 | 7 | 20 | 115 | +7.0 | 122 | 152 |
| ADC THIRD | Jonhy0700 C | Rama | 20 | 11 | 21 | 21 | +4.2 | 25 | 142 |
| MID NEW | onetimemite5084 | Agni | 4 | 8 | 27 | -2 | +4.1 | 2 | 2 |
| SOLO | SSaiyanBlu | Hercules | 8 | 10 | 30 | 11 | +4.8 | 15 | 3 |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer | Atlas | 13 | 9 | 30 | 168 | +6.3 | 174 | 102 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 0
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | InspectorCody | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | CashoutSinai | rookie | |
| MID | Boolougames | Gold II | Platinum III |
| SOLO | Jonhy0700 | Bronze III | Bronze II |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer | Obsidian I | Obsidian I |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Draiden | Platinum III | Platinum III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Tricky | ROFFLE Tier | Amber II |
| MID | SSaiyanBlu | Amber I PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Diamond III | Platinum III PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | onetimemite5084 | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
What changed vs actual draft
- CashoutSinai: ORDER SOLO → ORDER ADC
- Jonhy0700: CHAOS ADC → ORDER SOLO
- Riptzer: CHAOS SUPPORT → ORDER SUPPORT
- Tricky: ORDER ADC → CHAOS ADC
- Draiden: ORDER SUPPORT → CHAOS JUNGLE
- onetimemite5084: CHAOS MID → CHAOS SUPPORT
- Weak3n: CHAOS JUNGLE → CHAOS SOLO
- SSaiyanBlu: CHAOS SOLO → CHAOS MID