CHAOS WIN
05/18/2026 · Match #4 · Conquest
Confirmed by Jalopy on 5/19/2026, 1:39:53 PM
Kills
45 – 68
MVP · best KDA
Weak3n 23/7/20
Biggest Elo gain
Weak3n +7.0
Biggest Elo drop
Tricky -11.2
Balance Analysis
Based on 152 prior matchesORDER
44% win prob
Δ 43
Lean CHAOS
CHAOS
56% win prob
Order win probChaos win prob
Calibrated model prediction: 50% Order / 50% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
InspectorCody
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
JUNGLE
Amber III PLACEMENT
MISMATCH — Chaos
gap 68 · 60% favored
Weak3n
OVR
Diamond III
JUNGLE
Gold II
ADC
Tricky
OVR
ROFFLE Tier
ADC
Amber II
CLEAR EDGE — Order
gap 38 · 55% favored
Jonhy0700
OVR
Bronze III
ADC
ROFFLE Tier
MID
Boolougames
OVR
Gold II
MID
Platinum III
MISMATCH — Order
gap 94 · 63% favored
onetimemite5084
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
MID
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
CashoutSinai
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
SLIGHT EDGE — Chaos
gap 11 · 52% favored
SSaiyanBlu
OVR
Amber I PLACEMENT
SOLO
Amber I PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Draiden
OVR
Platinum III
SUPPORT
Silver II PLACEMENT
MISMATCH — Chaos
gap 130 · 68% favored
Riptzer
OVR
Obsidian I
SUPPORT
Obsidian I
ORDER (LOSS) 45 kills Team Δ -24.1
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE OFF-ROLE | InspectorCody | 15/14/13 | 2.00 | -14 | ▼ -2.2 | -16 | 3 | |
| ADC | Tricky | 8/19/7 | 0.79 | -46 | ▼ -11.2 | -57 | 30 | |
| MID | Boolougames TOP DMG | 9/8/20 | 3.63 | 67 | ▼ -2.6 | 65 | 69 | |
| SOLO NEW | CashoutSinai | 7/12/18 | 2.08 | 0 | ▼ -4.0 | -4 | 0 | |
| SUPPORT | Draiden C | 6/15/21 | 1.80 | 88 | ▼ -4.1 | 84 | 18 |
CHAOS (WIN) 68 kills Team Δ +26.3
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Weak3n MVP | 23/7/20 | 6.14 | 115 | ▲ +7.0 | 122 | 152 | |
| ADC THIRD | Jonhy0700 C | 20/11/21 | 3.73 | 21 | ▲ +4.2 | 25 | 142 | |
| MID NEW | onetimemite5084 | 4/8/27 | 3.88 | -2 | ▲ +4.1 | 2 | 2 | |
| SOLO | SSaiyanBlu | 8/10/30 | 3.80 | 11 | ▲ +4.8 | 15 | 3 | |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer | 13/9/30 | 4.78 | 168 | ▲ +6.3 | 174 | 102 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 0
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | InspectorCody | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | CashoutSinai | rookie | |
| MID | Boolougames | Gold II | Platinum III |
| SOLO | Jonhy0700 | Bronze III | Bronze II |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer | Obsidian I | Obsidian I |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Draiden | Platinum III | Platinum III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Tricky | ROFFLE Tier | Amber II |
| MID | SSaiyanBlu | Amber I PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Diamond III | Platinum III PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | onetimemite5084 | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
What changed vs actual draft
- CashoutSinai: ORDER SOLO → ORDER ADC
- Jonhy0700: CHAOS ADC → ORDER SOLO
- Riptzer: CHAOS SUPPORT → ORDER SUPPORT
- Tricky: ORDER ADC → CHAOS ADC
- Draiden: ORDER SUPPORT → CHAOS JUNGLE
- onetimemite5084: CHAOS MID → CHAOS SUPPORT
- Weak3n: CHAOS JUNGLE → CHAOS SOLO
- SSaiyanBlu: CHAOS SOLO → CHAOS MID