CHAOS WIN
UPSET
05/11/2026 · Match #1 · Conquest
Confirmed by Jalopy on 5/12/2026, 12:29:56 PM
Kills
31 – 38
MVP · best KDA
Riptzer 7/3/14
Biggest Elo gain
Riptzer +12.1
Biggest Elo drop
Boolougames -6.8
Balance Analysis
Based on 131 prior matchesORDER
54% win prob
Δ 27
Lean ORDER
UPSET — underdog won
CHAOS
46% win prob
Order win probChaos win prob
Calibrated model prediction: 0% Order / 100% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
Weak3n
OVR
Obsidian III
JUNGLE
Gold I
MISMATCH — Order
gap 91 · 63% favored
Jonhy0700
OVR
Amber II
JUNGLE
Poo Poo III
ADC
OneFruityDon
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC
Amber III PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 5 · 51% favored
i cant read
OVR
Amber II
ADC
Amber II
MID
Boolougames
OVR
Gold I
MID
Platinum III
MISMATCH — Order
gap 113 · 66% favored
Edgewing
OVR
Poo Poo III
MID
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
OSteg
OVR
Amber II
SOLO
Bronze I
CLEAR EDGE — Order
gap 33 · 55% favored
Riptzer
OVR
Obsidian III
SOLO
Poo Poo I
SUPPORT
Draiden
OVR
Gold III
SUPPORT
Silver III PLACEMENT
CLEAR EDGE — Order
gap 31 · 54% favored
DAW00T
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Amber II PLACEMENT
ORDER (LOSS) 31 kills Team Δ -24.3
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Weak3n | 15/7/10 | 3.57 | 145 | ▼ -4.2 | 141 | 131 | |
| ADC NEW | OneFruityDon | 5/8/8 | 1.63 | -15 | ▼ -4.9 | -20 | 1 | |
| MID | Boolougames | 7/7/9 | 2.29 | 77 | ▼ -6.8 | 70 | 53 | |
| SOLO THIRD | OSteg C | 4/8/14 | 2.25 | 6 | ▼ -3.0 | 3 | 54 | |
| SUPPORT | Draiden | 0/8/16 | 2.00 | 64 | ▼ -5.4 | 59 | 10 |
CHAOS (WIN) 38 kills Team Δ +32.3
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Jonhy0700 TOP DMG | 19/6/12 | 5.17 | 6 | ▲ +8.6 | 14 | 122 | |
| ADC | i cant read C | 6/8/10 | 2.00 | 6 | ▲ +3.1 | 9 | 22 | |
| MID SECONDARY | Edgewing | 5/8/15 | 2.50 | -14 | ▲ +3.9 | -10 | 23 | |
| SOLO THIRD | Riptzer MVP | 7/3/14 | 7.00 | 144 | ▲ +12.1 | 156 | 88 | |
| SUPPORT | DAW00T | 1/6/12 | 2.17 | 3 | ▲ +4.7 | 7 | 3 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 0
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | OSteg | Amber II | Amber II PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Edgewing | Poo Poo III | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | Boolougames | Gold I | Platinum III |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Obsidian III | Platinum II PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | i cant read | Amber II | Amber III PLACEMENT |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | OneFruityDon | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Draiden | Gold III | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | DAW00T | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | Jonhy0700 | Amber II | Bronze III |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer | Obsidian III | Obsidian III |
What changed vs actual draft
- Weak3n: ORDER JUNGLE → ORDER SOLO
- OSteg: ORDER SOLO → ORDER JUNGLE
- Edgewing: CHAOS MID → ORDER ADC
- i cant read: CHAOS ADC → ORDER SUPPORT
- OneFruityDon: ORDER ADC → CHAOS JUNGLE
- Draiden: ORDER SUPPORT → CHAOS ADC
- Jonhy0700: CHAOS JUNGLE → CHAOS SOLO
- Riptzer: CHAOS SOLO → CHAOS SUPPORT
- DAW00T: CHAOS SUPPORT → CHAOS MID
Notes / Flags
- OneFruityDon [shitter]: lowest dmg in the game