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04/17/2026 · Match #15 · Conquest UNCONFIRMED

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ORDER WIN · Weak3n: WITH

VOD: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/2749829322?t=0h57m50s @ 3470s

Balance Analysis

Based on 12 prior matches
ORDER
7
49% win prob
Δ 7
Balanced
CHAOS
14
51% win prob

ORDER (WIN) Team Δ +96.4

RolePlayerGodKDA Elo BeforeΔElo AfterGames
SUPPORT sillyslother Sylvanus 2 2 14 54 +21.0 74 6
JUNGLE Kryooo Tsukuyomi 9 3 12 17 +19.7 36 8
SOLO NEW Horrify Gilgamesh 6 6 6 0 +13.5 14 0
MID Jonhy0700 Janus 5 1 11 -49 +24.5 -25 11
ADC THIRD OSteg Artemis 7 5 8 12 +17.7 30 7

CHAOS (LOSS) Team Δ -62.4

RolePlayerGodKDA Elo BeforeΔElo AfterGames
JUNGLE Weak3n Princess Bari 4 4 4 -8 -13.5 -22 12
ADC SECONDARY RogueThrone Hou Yi 7 6 0 -11 -11.4 -22 5
SUPPORT NEW SpideryBacchus9 Ares 0 8 1 11 -11.2 0 2
MID NEW [CopebbyEsports] MindyRox420 Xbalanque 2 5 6 7 -13.0 -6 2
SOLO KingSaber Cabrakan 4 6 7 71 -13.3 58 7

Elo: K=32 base · off-role wins boosted, off-role losses softened · stomps (F6) +25%

Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split

ORDER
11
50% win prob
Δ 2
most balanced split
CHAOS
9
50% win prob

ORDER · optimal

RolePlayerElo
SUPPORT sillyslother 54
JUNGLE Weak3n -8
SOLO KingSaber 71
MID Jonhy0700 -49
ADC RogueThrone -11

CHAOS · optimal

RolePlayerElo
SUPPORT SpideryBacchus9 11
JUNGLE Kryooo 17
SOLO Horrify rookie
MID [CopebbyEsports] MindyRox420 7
ADC OSteg 12

What changed vs actual draft