CHAOS WIN
UPSET
05/10/2026 · Match #4 · Conquest
Confirmed by Jalopy on 5/11/2026, 1:10:29 PM
Balance Analysis
Based on 129 prior matchesORDER
58% win prob
Δ 55
Lean ORDER
UPSET — underdog won
CHAOS
42% win prob
Order win probChaos win prob
Calibrated model prediction: 100% Order / 0% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
Jonhy0700
OVR
Bronze III
JUNGLE
Poo Poo I
EVEN
gap 9 · 51% favored
AlphaClaps
OVR
Silver III
JUNGLE
Poo Poo III
ADC
Kryooo
OVR
Gold I
ADC
Bronze I
SLIGHT EDGE — Chaos
gap 27 · 54% favored
ItzStallone
OVR
Gold II
ADC
Gold III
MID
Boolougames
OVR
Platinum III
MID
Platinum II
MISMATCH — Order
gap 67 · 60% favored
ELLEONTTV
OVR
Bronze I
MID
Bronze I PLACEMENT
SOLO
Horrify
OVR
Dog Shit I
SOLO
Amber I
CLEAR EDGE — Order
gap 33 · 55% favored
RogueThrone
OVR
ROFFLE Tier
SOLO
Dog Shit II
SUPPORT
Weak3n
OVR
Obsidian II
SUPPORT
Gold II
MISMATCH — Order
gap 64 · 59% favored
Hydra
OVR
Bronze III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Amber II PLACEMENT
ORDER (LOSS) 17 kills Team Δ -31.7
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Jonhy0700 C | 8/10/5 | 1.30 | 17 | ▼ -5.5 | 12 | 120 | |
| ADC | Kryooo | 3/8/3 | 0.75 | 81 | ▼ -9.8 | 72 | 67 | |
| MID | Boolougames | 3/8/4 | 0.88 | 90 | ▼ -8.6 | 82 | 51 | |
| SOLO | Horrify | 3/7/7 | 1.43 | -18 | ▼ -4.8 | -23 | 32 | |
| SUPPORT OFF-ROLE | Weak3n | 0/8/7 | 0.88 | 157 | ▼ -3.0 | 154 | 129 |
CHAOS (WIN) 41 kills Team Δ +34.7
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE SECONDARY | AlphaClaps | 7/3/13 | 6.67 | 38 | ▲ +5.0 | 43 | 43 | |
| ADC SECONDARY | ItzStallone C | 11/3/14 | 8.33 | 65 | ▲ +6.3 | 72 | 30 | |
| MID | ELLEONTTV TOP DMG | 12/2/12 | 12.00 | 32 | ▲ +9.3 | 41 | 12 | |
| SOLO THIRD | RogueThrone | 3/7/14 | 2.43 | -102 | ▲ +2.1 | -100 | 72 | |
| SUPPORT NEW | Hydra MVP | 8/2/19 | 13.50 | 18 | ▲ +12.1 | 30 | 2 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 0
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Boolougames | Platinum III | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Hydra | Bronze III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | RogueThrone | ROFFLE Tier | ROFFLE Tier |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Obsidian II | Platinum II PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Jonhy0700 | Bronze III | Amber III PLACEMENT |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | ELLEONTTV | Bronze I | Bronze III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | ItzStallone | Gold II | Gold III |
| MID | AlphaClaps | Silver III | Bronze I PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | Horrify | Dog Shit I | Amber I |
| SUPPORT | Kryooo | Gold I | Silver III PLACEMENT |
What changed vs actual draft
- Weak3n: ORDER SUPPORT → ORDER SOLO
- Jonhy0700: ORDER JUNGLE → ORDER SUPPORT
- Boolougames: ORDER MID → ORDER JUNGLE
- RogueThrone: CHAOS SOLO → ORDER MID
- Hydra: CHAOS SUPPORT → ORDER ADC
- Kryooo: ORDER ADC → CHAOS SUPPORT
- Horrify: ORDER SOLO → CHAOS SOLO
- ELLEONTTV: CHAOS MID → CHAOS JUNGLE
- AlphaClaps: CHAOS JUNGLE → CHAOS MID