CHAOS WIN
UPSET
05/10/2026 · Match #2 · Conquest
Confirmed by Jalopy on 5/11/2026, 12:47:14 PM
Kills
25 – 35
MVP · best KDA
ELLEONTTV 6/3/16
Biggest Elo gain
ELLEONTTV +10.1
Biggest Elo drop
Boolougames -10.0
Balance Analysis
Based on 127 prior matchesORDER
57% win prob
Δ 48
Lean ORDER
UPSET — underdog won
CHAOS
43% win prob
Order win probChaos win prob
Calibrated model prediction: 100% Order / 0% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
Weak3n
OVR
Obsidian II
JUNGLE
Platinum III
CLEAR EDGE — Order
gap 56 · 58% favored
Kryooo
OVR
Platinum III
JUNGLE
Bronze I
ADC
Tricky
OVR
ROFFLE Tier
ADC
Bronze III
SLIGHT EDGE — Order
gap 22 · 53% favored
i cant read
OVR
Poo Poo I
ADC
Poo Poo I
MID
Boolougames
OVR
Platinum I
MID
Diamond III
MISMATCH — Order
gap 93 · 63% favored
ELLEONTTV
OVR
Bronze III
MID
Bronze III PLACEMENT
SOLO
AlphaClaps
OVR
Silver III
SOLO
Bronze I
SLIGHT EDGE — Order
gap 19 · 53% favored
Jonhy0700
OVR
Amber I
SOLO
Amber I
SUPPORT
ItzStallone
OVR
Gold I
SUPPORT
Silver III PLACEMENT
MISMATCH — Order
gap 63 · 59% favored
Horrify
OVR
Dog Shit I
SUPPORT
Dog Shit II
ORDER (LOSS) 25 kills Team Δ -30.1
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Weak3n | 8/6/14 | 3.67 | 155 | ▼ -4.2 | 150 | 127 | |
| ADC | Tricky | 3/4/8 | 2.75 | -37 | ▼ -6.0 | -43 | 27 | |
| MID | Boolougames | 6/8/6 | 1.50 | 103 | ▼ -10.0 | 93 | 49 | |
| SOLO | AlphaClaps C | 4/9/16 | 2.22 | 36 | ▼ -6.0 | 30 | 41 | |
| SUPPORT OFF-ROLE | ItzStallone | 4/8/9 | 1.63 | 74 | ▼ -4.0 | 70 | 28 |
CHAOS (WIN) 35 kills Team Δ +34.1
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE SECONDARY | Kryooo C TOP DMG | 13/7/11 | 3.43 | 82 | ▲ +5.0 | 87 | 65 | |
| ADC | i cant read | 12/3/3 | 5.00 | -2 | ▲ +8.1 | 6 | 21 | |
| MID | ELLEONTTV MVP | 6/3/16 | 7.33 | 19 | ▲ +10.1 | 29 | 10 | |
| SOLO THIRD | Jonhy0700 | 3/7/14 | 2.43 | 12 | ▲ +3.9 | 16 | 118 | |
| SUPPORT SECONDARY | Horrify | 1/5/17 | 3.60 | -19 | ▲ +7.0 | -12 | 30 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 0
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | i cant read | Poo Poo I | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Horrify | Dog Shit I | Amber II PLACEMENT |
| MID | ELLEONTTV | Bronze III | Bronze III PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Obsidian II | Platinum II PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Kryooo | Platinum III | Silver III PLACEMENT |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Boolougames | Platinum I | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Tricky | ROFFLE Tier | Bronze III |
| MID | AlphaClaps | Silver III | Bronze I PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | ItzStallone | Gold I | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Jonhy0700 | Amber I | Amber III PLACEMENT |
What changed vs actual draft
- Weak3n: ORDER JUNGLE → ORDER SOLO
- ELLEONTTV: CHAOS MID → ORDER MID
- Kryooo: CHAOS JUNGLE → ORDER SUPPORT
- Horrify: CHAOS SUPPORT → ORDER ADC
- i cant read: CHAOS ADC → ORDER JUNGLE
- Boolougames: ORDER MID → CHAOS JUNGLE
- AlphaClaps: ORDER SOLO → CHAOS MID
- ItzStallone: ORDER SUPPORT → CHAOS SOLO
- Tricky: ORDER ADC → CHAOS ADC
- Jonhy0700: CHAOS SOLO → CHAOS SUPPORT
Notes / Flags
- Tricky [weak3n_said]: Maybe tricky wont feed one of these games, I dream