CHAOS WIN
05/07/2026 · Match #6 · Conquest
Confirmed by Jalopy on 5/8/2026, 12:16:43 PM
Kills
25 – 40
MVP · best KDA
timerrr 12/3/15
Biggest Elo gain
Riptzer +8.9
Biggest Elo drop
OSteg -8.3
Balance Analysis
Based on 123 prior matchesORDER
47% win prob
Δ 24
Balanced
CHAOS
53% win prob
Order win probChaos win prob
Calibrated model prediction: 0% Order / 100% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
Sink
OVR
Amber I
JUNGLE
Amber II PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 7 · 51% favored
BongRipErik
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
JUNGLE
Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC
OSteg
OVR
Amber III
ADC
Poo Poo II
EVEN
gap 3 · 50% favored
i cant read
OVR
Poo Poo III
ADC
Poo Poo III
MID
ELLEONTTV
OVR
Bronze III PLACEMENT
MID
Bronze III PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 3 · 50% favored
Weak3n
OVR
Obsidian III
MID
Bronze III
SOLO
Jonhy0700
OVR
Amber I
SOLO
Bronze III
EVEN
gap 0 · 50% favored
timerrr
OVR
Bronze II PLACEMENT
SOLO
Bronze III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Boolougames
OVR
Diamond III
SUPPORT
Silver II PLACEMENT
MISMATCH — Chaos
gap 88 · 62% favored
Riptzer
OVR
Diamond II
SUPPORT
Diamond I
ORDER (LOSS) 25 kills Team Δ -18.1
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Sink C | 6/8/10 | 2.00 | 10 | ▼ -2.0 | 8 | 12 | |
| ADC SECONDARY | OSteg | 3/8/5 | 1.00 | 3 | ▼ -8.3 | -5 | 51 | |
| MID SECONDARY | ELLEONTTV | 9/6/8 | 2.83 | 20 | ▼ -1.4 | 19 | 9 | |
| SOLO THIRD | Jonhy0700 | 4/9/4 | 0.89 | 15 | ▼ -4.5 | 11 | 115 | |
| SUPPORT OFF-ROLE | Boolougames | 3/9/12 | 1.67 | 111 | ▼ -1.9 | 109 | 47 |
CHAOS (WIN) 40 kills Team Δ +27.9
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE NEW | BongRipErik | 5/8/18 | 2.88 | 0 | ▲ +2.5 | 2 | 0 | |
| ADC | i cant read | 11/4/12 | 5.75 | -13 | ▲ +5.2 | -7 | 17 | |
| MID OFF-ROLE | Weak3n | 8/7/15 | 3.29 | 145 | ▲ +2.9 | 148 | 123 | |
| SOLO | timerrr MVP C TOP DMG | 12/3/15 | 9.00 | 24 | ▲ +8.4 | 32 | 4 | |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer | 4/3/19 | 7.67 | 122 | ▲ +8.9 | 131 | 85 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 0
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | OSteg | Amber III | Amber II PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Sink | Amber I | Amber I PLACEMENT |
| MID | ELLEONTTV | Bronze III PLACEMENT | Bronze III PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | Jonhy0700 | Amber I | Bronze III |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer | Diamond II | Diamond I |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | i cant read | Poo Poo III | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | timerrr | Bronze II PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | Boolougames | Diamond III | Diamond III |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Obsidian III | Platinum II PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | BongRipErik | rookie | |
What changed vs actual draft
- OSteg: ORDER ADC → ORDER JUNGLE
- Sink: ORDER JUNGLE → ORDER ADC
- Riptzer: CHAOS SUPPORT → ORDER SUPPORT
- Boolougames: ORDER SUPPORT → CHAOS MID
- Weak3n: CHAOS MID → CHAOS SOLO
- timerrr: CHAOS SOLO → CHAOS ADC
- BongRipErik: CHAOS JUNGLE → CHAOS SUPPORT
- i cant read: CHAOS ADC → CHAOS JUNGLE