ORDER WIN
UPSET
05/07/2026 · Match #3 · Conquest
Confirmed by Jalopy on 5/8/2026, 11:52:24 AM
Kills
27 – 9
MVP · best KDA
Draiden 2/1/15
Biggest Elo gain
Draiden +13.8
Biggest Elo drop
Ohta -8.2
Balance Analysis
Based on 120 prior matchesORDER
43% win prob
Δ 46
Lean CHAOS
UPSET — underdog won
CHAOS
57% win prob
Order win probChaos win prob
Calibrated model prediction: 100% Order / 0% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
leoorchild
OVR
Amber I PLACEMENT
JUNGLE
Amber I PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 3 · 50% favored
Sink
OVR
Amber I PLACEMENT
JUNGLE
Amber I PLACEMENT
ADC
Kryooo
OVR
Gold I
ADC
Bronze II
SLIGHT EDGE — Order
gap 27 · 54% favored
Ohta
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC
Amber III PLACEMENT
MID
AlphaClaps
OVR
Bronze II
MID
Bronze II PLACEMENT
MISMATCH — Chaos
gap 104 · 65% favored
Boolougames
OVR
Diamond II
MID
Diamond I
SOLO
Jonhy0700
OVR
Bronze III
SOLO
Bronze III
MISMATCH — Chaos
gap 75 · 61% favored
Weak3n
OVR
Diamond I
SOLO
Platinum II PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Draiden
OVR
Silver III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Bronze III PLACEMENT
MISMATCH — Chaos
gap 118 · 66% favored
Riptzer
OVR
Diamond II
SUPPORT
Diamond I
ORDER (WIN) 27 kills Team Δ +33.9
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE THIRD | leoorchild | 5/2/6 | 5.50 | 16 | ▲ +3.4 | 19 | 8 | |
| ADC | Kryooo | 8/1/8 | 16.00 | 73 | ▲ +10.0 | 83 | 62 | |
| MID OFF-ROLE | AlphaClaps | 4/2/10 | 7.00 | 23 | ▲ +4.2 | 27 | 37 | |
| SOLO THIRD | Jonhy0700 TOP DMG | 8/3/5 | 4.33 | 18 | ▲ +2.6 | 20 | 112 | |
| SUPPORT | Draiden MVP C | 2/1/15 | 17.00 | 42 | ▲ +13.8 | 56 | 8 |
CHAOS (LOSS) 9 kills Team Δ -21.9
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Sink | 5/8/2 | 0.88 | 16 | ▼ -2.2 | 14 | 9 | |
| ADC NEW | Ohta | 0/5/0 | 0.00 | 3 | ▼ -8.2 | -6 | 1 | |
| MID | Boolougames C | 3/3/1 | 1.33 | 124 | ▼ -2.8 | 121 | 44 | |
| SOLO OFF-ROLE | Weak3n | 1/6/5 | 1.00 | 134 | ▼ -1.7 | 132 | 120 | |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer | 0/5/2 | 0.40 | 126 | ▼ -7.0 | 119 | 82 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 1
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | leoorchild | Amber I PLACEMENT | Amber I PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Ohta | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | Boolougames | Diamond II | Diamond I |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Diamond I | Platinum II PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Jonhy0700 | Bronze III | Amber III PLACEMENT |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Draiden | Silver III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Sink | Amber I PLACEMENT | Amber I PLACEMENT |
| MID | AlphaClaps | Bronze II | Bronze II PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | Kryooo | Gold I | Silver I PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer | Diamond II | Diamond I |
What changed vs actual draft
- Jonhy0700: ORDER SOLO → ORDER SUPPORT
- Ohta: CHAOS ADC → ORDER ADC
- Weak3n: CHAOS SOLO → ORDER SOLO
- Boolougames: CHAOS MID → ORDER MID
- Kryooo: ORDER ADC → CHAOS SOLO
- AlphaClaps: ORDER MID → CHAOS MID
- Draiden: ORDER SUPPORT → CHAOS JUNGLE
- Sink: CHAOS JUNGLE → CHAOS ADC
Notes / Flags
- Ohta [weak3n_said]: If your that uncomfortable your ruining the lobby
- Ohta [shitter]: 2k dmg adc