CHAOS WIN
UPSET
05/07/2026 · Match #1 · Conquest
Confirmed by Jalopy on 5/8/2026, 11:33:10 AM
Kills
23 – 49
MVP · best KDA
Boolougames 11/3/21
Biggest Elo gain
Boolougames +9.8
Biggest Elo drop
Jalopy -7.8
Balance Analysis
Based on 118 prior matchesORDER
59% win prob
Δ 62
Lean ORDER
UPSET — underdog won
CHAOS
41% win prob
Order win probChaos win prob
Calibrated model prediction: 100% Order / 0% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
AlphaClaps
OVR
Bronze III
JUNGLE
Amber III PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 0 · 50% favored
Jonhy0700
OVR
Bronze III
JUNGLE
Poo Poo I
ADC
Riptzer
OVR
Diamond II
ADC
Poo Poo III
CLEAR EDGE — Order
gap 55 · 58% favored
RogueThrone
OVR
ROFFLE Tier
ADC
ROFFLE Tier
MID
Jalopy
OVR
Gold III
MID
Amber III PLACEMENT
MISMATCH — Chaos
gap 114 · 66% favored
Boolougames
OVR
Platinum I
MID
Diamond III
SOLO
Weak3n
OVR
Diamond I
SOLO
Platinum II PLACEMENT
MISMATCH — Order
gap 97 · 64% favored
HorrorsoftheDeep
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
TramboneKing
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Amber I PLACEMENT
SLIGHT EDGE — Order
gap 13 · 52% favored
leoorchild
OVR
Amber II PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Amber III PLACEMENT
ORDER (LOSS) 23 kills Team Δ -24.7
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE SECONDARY | AlphaClaps | 9/10/8 | 1.70 | 17 | ▼ -6.3 | 11 | 35 | |
| ADC THIRD | Riptzer C | 4/9/9 | 1.44 | 126 | ▼ -4.1 | 122 | 80 | |
| MID THIRD | Jalopy | 4/9/9 | 1.44 | 59 | ▼ -7.8 | 52 | 17 | |
| SOLO OFF-ROLE | Weak3n | 0/8/12 | 1.50 | 140 | ▼ -3.0 | 137 | 118 | |
| SUPPORT SECONDARY | TramboneKing | 6/13/12 | 1.38 | -10 | ▼ -3.5 | -13 | 7 |
CHAOS (WIN) 49 kills Team Δ +35.3
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Jonhy0700 TOP DMG | 15/6/22 | 6.17 | 20 | ▲ +5.7 | 25 | 110 | |
| ADC | RogueThrone | 16/4/16 | 8.00 | -109 | ▲ +7.6 | -101 | 69 | |
| MID | Boolougames MVP C | 11/3/21 | 10.67 | 108 | ▲ +9.8 | 118 | 42 | |
| SOLO NEW | HorrorsoftheDeep | 2/6/19 | 3.50 | 0 | ▲ +3.9 | 4 | 2 | |
| SUPPORT OFF-ROLE | leoorchild | 5/5/29 | 6.80 | 6 | ▲ +8.3 | 14 | 6 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 0
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Jalopy | Gold III | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | AlphaClaps | Bronze III | Bronze II PLACEMENT |
| MID | Boolougames | Platinum I | Diamond III |
| SOLO | Jonhy0700 | Bronze III | Bronze III |
| SUPPORT | TramboneKing | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber I PLACEMENT |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | HorrorsoftheDeep | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | leoorchild | Amber II PLACEMENT | Amber II PLACEMENT |
| MID | RogueThrone | ROFFLE Tier | ROFFLE Tier |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Diamond I | Platinum II PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer | Diamond II | Diamond I |
What changed vs actual draft
- Jalopy: ORDER MID → ORDER JUNGLE
- AlphaClaps: ORDER JUNGLE → ORDER ADC
- Jonhy0700: CHAOS JUNGLE → ORDER SOLO
- Boolougames: CHAOS MID → ORDER MID
- Weak3n: ORDER SOLO → CHAOS SOLO
- Riptzer: ORDER ADC → CHAOS SUPPORT
- HorrorsoftheDeep: CHAOS SOLO → CHAOS JUNGLE
- leoorchild: CHAOS SUPPORT → CHAOS ADC
- RogueThrone: CHAOS ADC → CHAOS MID