05/07/2026 · Match #1 · Conquest CONFIRMED
Confirmed by Jalopy on 5/8/2026, 11:33:10 AM
CHAOS WIN · Weak3n: WITH · Length: 39:10
VOD: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/2766670259?t=00h24m18s @ 1458s
Balance Analysis
Based on 118 prior matchesORDER
59% win prob
Δ 62
Lean ORDER
UPSET — underdog won
CHAOS
41% win prob
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
AlphaClaps
OVR
Bronze III
JUNGLE
Amber III PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 0 · 50% favored
Jonhy0700
OVR
Bronze III
JUNGLE
Poo Poo I
ADC
Riptzer
OVR
Diamond II
ADC
Poo Poo III
CLEAR EDGE — Order
gap 55 · 58% favored
RogueThrone
OVR
ROFFLE Tier
ADC
ROFFLE Tier
MID
Jalopy
OVR
Gold III
MID
Amber III PLACEMENT
MISMATCH — Chaos
gap 114 · 66% favored
Boolougames
OVR
Platinum I
MID
Diamond III
SOLO
Weak3n
OVR
Diamond I
SOLO
Platinum II PLACEMENT
MISMATCH — Order
gap 97 · 64% favored
HorrorsoftheDeep
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
TramboneKing
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Amber I PLACEMENT
SLIGHT EDGE — Order
gap 13 · 52% favored
leoorchild
OVR
Amber II PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Amber III PLACEMENT
ORDER (LOSS) Team Δ -24.7
| Role | Player | God | K | D | A | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE SECONDARY | AlphaClaps | Pele | 9 | 10 | 8 | 17 | -6.3 | 11 | 35 |
| ADC THIRD | Riptzer C | Jing Wei | 4 | 9 | 9 | 126 | -4.1 | 122 | 80 |
| MID THIRD | Jalopy | Kukulkan | 4 | 9 | 9 | 59 | -7.8 | 52 | 17 |
| SOLO OFF-ROLE | Weak3n | Osiris | 0 | 8 | 12 | 140 | -3.0 | 137 | 118 |
| SUPPORT SECONDARY | TramboneKing | Atlas | 6 | 13 | 12 | -10 | -3.5 | -13 | 7 |
CHAOS (WIN) Team Δ +35.3
| Role | Player | God | K | D | A | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Jonhy0700 TOP DMG | Anubis | 15 | 6 | 22 | 20 | +5.7 | 25 | 110 |
| ADC | RogueThrone | Hou Yi | 16 | 4 | 16 | -109 | +7.6 | -101 | 69 |
| MID | Boolougames C | Chiron | 11 | 3 | 21 | 108 | +9.8 | 118 | 42 |
| SOLO NEW | HorrorsoftheDeep | Cabrakan | 2 | 6 | 19 | 0 | +3.9 | 4 | 2 |
| SUPPORT OFF-ROLE | leoorchild | Ymir | 5 | 5 | 29 | 6 | +8.3 | 14 | 6 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 0
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Jalopy | Gold III | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | AlphaClaps | Bronze III | Bronze II PLACEMENT |
| MID | Boolougames | Platinum I | Diamond III |
| SOLO | Jonhy0700 | Bronze III | Bronze III |
| SUPPORT | TramboneKing | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber I PLACEMENT |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | HorrorsoftheDeep | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | leoorchild | Amber II PLACEMENT | Amber II PLACEMENT |
| MID | RogueThrone | ROFFLE Tier | ROFFLE Tier |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Diamond I | Platinum II PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer | Diamond II | Diamond I |
What changed vs actual draft
- Jalopy: ORDER MID → ORDER JUNGLE
- AlphaClaps: ORDER JUNGLE → ORDER ADC
- Jonhy0700: CHAOS JUNGLE → ORDER SOLO
- Boolougames: CHAOS MID → ORDER MID
- Weak3n: ORDER SOLO → CHAOS SOLO
- Riptzer: ORDER ADC → CHAOS SUPPORT
- HorrorsoftheDeep: CHAOS SOLO → CHAOS JUNGLE
- leoorchild: CHAOS SUPPORT → CHAOS ADC
- RogueThrone: CHAOS ADC → CHAOS MID