05/06/2026 · Match #2 · Conquest CONFIRMED
Confirmed by Jalopy on 5/7/2026, 1:17:39 PM
CHAOS WIN · Weak3n: WITH · Length: 31:15
VOD: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/2765898749?t=00h58m15s @ 3495s
Balance Analysis
Based on 113 prior matchesORDER
58% win prob
Δ 55
Lean ORDER
UPSET — underdog won
CHAOS
42% win prob
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
Jonhy0700
OVR
Silver III
JUNGLE
Amber III
EVEN
gap 0 · 50% favored
Sink
OVR
Amber I PLACEMENT
JUNGLE
Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC
TenochMedina
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC
Amber III PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 0 · 50% favored
leoorchild
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC
Amber III PLACEMENT
MID
Weak3n
OVR
Diamond II
MID
Bronze III PLACEMENT
CLEAR EDGE — Order
gap 57 · 58% favored
Edgewing
OVR
Dog Shit III
MID
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Zikze
OVR
Amber II PLACEMENT
SOLO
Amber II PLACEMENT
CLEAR EDGE — Chaos
gap 40 · 56% favored
Kryooo
OVR
Gold III
SOLO
Silver II PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Riptzer
OVR
Diamond I
SUPPORT
Obsidian III
MISMATCH — Order
gap 143 · 70% favored
iRoFFLe
OVR
Poo Poo III
SUPPORT
Amber III PLACEMENT
ORDER (LOSS) Team Δ -28.2
| Role | Player | God | K | D | A | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Jonhy0700 | Awilix | 8 | 6 | 5 | 35 | -4.2 | 31 | 105 |
| ADC NEW | TenochMedina | Artemis | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 | -6.4 | -6 | 0 |
| MID OFF-ROLE | Weak3n | Scylla | 1 | 4 | 7 | 127 | -5.0 | 122 | 113 |
| SOLO | Zikze | Sun Wukong | 3 | 6 | 6 | 6 | -5.8 | 0 | 3 |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer C | Atlas | 2 | 7 | 6 | 140 | -6.8 | 133 | 78 |
CHAOS (WIN) Team Δ +34.7
| Role | Player | God | K | D | A | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Sink | Hou Yi | 9 | 5 | 12 | 14 | +3.5 | 18 | 4 |
| ADC NEW | leoorchild | Rama | 10 | 2 | 7 | 0 | +7.5 | 8 | 2 |
| MID SECONDARY | Edgewing TOP DMG | Anubis | 3 | 3 | 18 | -27 | +5.6 | -22 | 20 |
| SOLO OFF-ROLE | Kryooo C | Osiris | 4 | 3 | 12 | 57 | +5.0 | 62 | 56 |
| SUPPORT SECONDARY | iRoFFLe | Yemoja | 2 | 2 | 21 | -10 | +13.1 | 3 | 17 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 1
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | TenochMedina | rookie | |
| ADC | leoorchild | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | Kryooo | Gold III | Bronze II PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Diamond II | Platinum II PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Jonhy0700 | Silver III | Amber III PLACEMENT |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Zikze | Amber II PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Edgewing | Dog Shit III | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | iRoFFLe | Poo Poo III | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | Sink | Amber I PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer | Diamond I | Obsidian III |
What changed vs actual draft
- Weak3n: ORDER MID → ORDER SOLO
- Jonhy0700: ORDER JUNGLE → ORDER SUPPORT
- TenochMedina: ORDER ADC → ORDER JUNGLE
- leoorchild: CHAOS ADC → ORDER ADC
- Kryooo: CHAOS SOLO → ORDER MID
- Riptzer: ORDER SUPPORT → CHAOS SUPPORT
- Zikze: ORDER SOLO → CHAOS JUNGLE
- Edgewing: CHAOS MID → CHAOS ADC
- iRoFFLe: CHAOS SUPPORT → CHAOS MID
- Sink: CHAOS JUNGLE → CHAOS SOLO
Notes / Flags
- TenochMedina [weak3n_said]: I asked like 40 times if you were comfortable on ADC, clearly you are not
- TenochMedina [shitter]: bottom dmg