CHAOS WIN
UPSET
05/06/2026 · Match #2 · Conquest
Confirmed by Jalopy on 5/7/2026, 1:17:39 PM
Kills
15 – 28
MVP · best KDA
iRoFFLe 2/2/21
Biggest Elo gain
iRoFFLe +13.1
Biggest Elo drop
Riptzer -6.8
Balance Analysis
Based on 113 prior matchesORDER
58% win prob
Δ 55
Lean ORDER
UPSET — underdog won
CHAOS
42% win prob
Order win probChaos win prob
Calibrated model prediction: 0% Order / 100% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
Jonhy0700
OVR
Silver III
JUNGLE
Amber III
EVEN
gap 0 · 50% favored
Sink
OVR
Amber I PLACEMENT
JUNGLE
Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC
TenochMedina
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC
Amber III PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 0 · 50% favored
leoorchild
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC
Amber III PLACEMENT
MID
Weak3n
OVR
Diamond II
MID
Bronze III PLACEMENT
CLEAR EDGE — Order
gap 57 · 58% favored
Edgewing
OVR
Dog Shit III
MID
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Zikze
OVR
Amber II PLACEMENT
SOLO
Amber II PLACEMENT
CLEAR EDGE — Chaos
gap 40 · 56% favored
Kryooo
OVR
Gold III
SOLO
Silver II PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Riptzer
OVR
Diamond I
SUPPORT
Obsidian III
MISMATCH — Order
gap 143 · 70% favored
iRoFFLe
OVR
Poo Poo III
SUPPORT
Amber III PLACEMENT
ORDER (LOSS) 15 kills Team Δ -28.2
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Jonhy0700 | 8/6/5 | 2.17 | 35 | ▼ -4.2 | 31 | 105 | |
| ADC NEW | TenochMedina | 1/5/3 | 0.80 | 0 | ▼ -6.4 | -6 | 0 | |
| MID OFF-ROLE | Weak3n | 1/4/7 | 2.00 | 127 | ▼ -5.0 | 122 | 113 | |
| SOLO | Zikze | 3/6/6 | 1.50 | 6 | ▼ -5.8 | 0 | 3 | |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer C | 2/7/6 | 1.14 | 140 | ▼ -6.8 | 133 | 78 |
CHAOS (WIN) 28 kills Team Δ +34.7
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Sink | 9/5/12 | 4.20 | 14 | ▲ +3.5 | 18 | 4 | |
| ADC NEW | leoorchild | 10/2/7 | 8.50 | 0 | ▲ +7.5 | 8 | 2 | |
| MID SECONDARY | Edgewing TOP DMG | 3/3/18 | 7.00 | -27 | ▲ +5.5 | -22 | 20 | |
| SOLO OFF-ROLE | Kryooo C | 4/3/12 | 5.33 | 57 | ▲ +5.0 | 62 | 56 | |
| SUPPORT SECONDARY | iRoFFLe MVP | 2/2/21 | 11.50 | -10 | ▲ +13.1 | 3 | 17 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 1
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | TenochMedina | rookie | |
| ADC | leoorchild | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | Kryooo | Gold III | Bronze II PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Diamond II | Platinum II PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Jonhy0700 | Silver III | Amber III PLACEMENT |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Zikze | Amber II PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Edgewing | Dog Shit III | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | iRoFFLe | Poo Poo III | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | Sink | Amber I PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer | Diamond I | Obsidian III |
What changed vs actual draft
- Weak3n: ORDER MID → ORDER SOLO
- Jonhy0700: ORDER JUNGLE → ORDER SUPPORT
- TenochMedina: ORDER ADC → ORDER JUNGLE
- leoorchild: CHAOS ADC → ORDER ADC
- Kryooo: CHAOS SOLO → ORDER MID
- Riptzer: ORDER SUPPORT → CHAOS SUPPORT
- Zikze: ORDER SOLO → CHAOS JUNGLE
- Edgewing: CHAOS MID → CHAOS ADC
- iRoFFLe: CHAOS SUPPORT → CHAOS MID
- Sink: CHAOS JUNGLE → CHAOS SOLO
Notes / Flags
- TenochMedina [weak3n_said]: I asked like 40 times if you were comfortable on ADC, clearly you are not
- TenochMedina [shitter]: bottom dmg