ORDER WIN
UPSET
05/05/2026 · Match #5 · Conquest
Confirmed by Jalopy on 5/6/2026, 8:17:18 PM
Kills
39 – 20
MVP · best KDA
Riptzer 3/2/19
Biggest Elo gain
Riptzer +13.9
Biggest Elo drop
Jonhy0700 -10.5
Balance Analysis
Based on 111 prior matchesORDER
46% win prob
Δ 26
Lean CHAOS
UPSET — underdog won
CHAOS
54% win prob
Order win probChaos win prob
Calibrated model prediction: 100% Order / 0% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
Kryooo
OVR
Silver II
JUNGLE
Amber I
EVEN
gap 9 · 51% favored
Sink
OVR
Bronze III PLACEMENT
JUNGLE
Amber II PLACEMENT
ADC
i cant read
OVR
Poo Poo III
ADC
Poo Poo III
CLEAR EDGE — Chaos
gap 32 · 55% favored
Weak3n
OVR
Diamond I
ADC
Bronze III PLACEMENT
MID
RogueThrone
OVR
ROFFLE Tier
MID
ROFFLE Tier
CLEAR EDGE — Chaos
gap 53 · 58% favored
Jonhy0700
OVR
Silver II
MID
Amber I
SOLO
Icons
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 7 · 51% favored
GTboss94
OVR
Dog Shit I
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Riptzer
OVR
Diamond III
SUPPORT
Diamond III
MISMATCH — Order
gap 120 · 67% favored
SpideryBacchus9
OVR
Dog Shit I
SUPPORT
Amber III PLACEMENT
ORDER (WIN) 39 kills Team Δ +32.2
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE SECONDARY | Kryooo | 11/7/12 | 3.29 | 46 | ▲ +3.2 | 49 | 54 | |
| ADC | i cant read | 5/3/10 | 5.00 | -12 | ▲ +4.6 | -7 | 14 | |
| MID SECONDARY | RogueThrone C | 12/5/11 | 4.60 | -113 | ▲ +4.5 | -109 | 68 | |
| SOLO NEW | Icons TOP DMG | 8/3/10 | 6.00 | 0 | ▲ +6.0 | 6 | 0 | |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer MVP | 3/2/19 | 11.00 | 115 | ▲ +13.9 | 129 | 76 |
CHAOS (LOSS) 20 kills Team Δ -23.0
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE SECONDARY | Sink | 9/9/9 | 2.00 | 16 | ▼ -2.1 | 14 | 3 | |
| ADC OFF-ROLE | Weak3n | 1/6/7 | 1.33 | 134 | ▼ -3.7 | 130 | 111 | |
| MID THIRD | Jonhy0700 C | 3/11/6 | 0.82 | 48 | ▼ -10.5 | 37 | 103 | |
| SOLO SECONDARY | GTboss94 | 6/7/3 | 1.29 | -17 | ▼ -3.5 | -21 | 11 | |
| SUPPORT | SpideryBacchus9 | 1/6/10 | 1.83 | -15 | ▼ -3.4 | -19 | 12 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 0
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | GTboss94 | Dog Shit I | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Icons | rookie | |
| MID | RogueThrone | ROFFLE Tier | ROFFLE Tier |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Diamond I | Platinum II PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer | Diamond III | Diamond III |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | i cant read | Poo Poo III | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Sink | Bronze III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | SpideryBacchus9 | Dog Shit I | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | Kryooo | Silver II | Silver II PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Jonhy0700 | Silver II | Amber III PLACEMENT |
What changed vs actual draft
- Icons: ORDER SOLO → ORDER ADC
- GTboss94: CHAOS SOLO → ORDER JUNGLE
- Weak3n: CHAOS ADC → ORDER SOLO
- Kryooo: ORDER JUNGLE → CHAOS SOLO
- i cant read: ORDER ADC → CHAOS JUNGLE
- SpideryBacchus9: CHAOS SUPPORT → CHAOS MID
- Jonhy0700: CHAOS MID → CHAOS SUPPORT
- Sink: CHAOS JUNGLE → CHAOS ADC
Notes / Flags
- Jonhy0700 [weak3n_said]: if jonhy isnt getting shit on by rogue then they cant just sit here like this
- Jonhy0700 [shitter]: self admitted poor proformance