CHAOS WIN
UPSET
05/05/2026 · Match #3 · Conquest
Confirmed by Jalopy on 5/6/2026, 7:49:01 PM
Kills
10 – 43
MVP · best KDA
SnixJ 11/1/13
Biggest Elo gain
SnixJ +12.3
Biggest Elo drop
Weak3n -12.7
Balance Analysis
Based on 109 prior matchesORDER
61% win prob
Δ 78
ORDER favored
UPSET — underdog won
CHAOS
39% win prob
Order win probChaos win prob
Calibrated model prediction: 100% Order / 0% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
Weak3n
OVR
Obsidian III
JUNGLE
Gold I
MISMATCH — Order
gap 82 · 62% favored
Sink
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
JUNGLE
Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC
Riptzer
OVR
Diamond III
ADC
Poo Poo II
MISMATCH — Order
gap 69 · 60% favored
RogueThrone
OVR
ROFFLE Tier
ADC
ROFFLE Tier
MID
DeltaJulz613
OVR
Silver II
MID
Bronze II
SLIGHT EDGE — Order
gap 22 · 53% favored
SnixJ
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
MID
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Tametoy
OVR
Bronze I
SOLO
Bronze III
EVEN
gap 5 · 51% favored
Jonhy0700
OVR
Silver III
SOLO
Bronze III
SUPPORT
edith
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Amber III PLACEMENT
CLEAR EDGE — Chaos
gap 40 · 56% favored
Kryooo
OVR
Bronze I
SUPPORT
Bronze I PLACEMENT
ORDER (LOSS) 10 kills Team Δ -29.9
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Weak3n | 2/9/0 | 0.22 | 151 | ▼ -12.7 | 139 | 109 | |
| ADC THIRD | Riptzer | 3/11/0 | 0.27 | 112 | ▼ -4.7 | 107 | 74 | |
| MID | DeltaJulz613 C | 2/9/2 | 0.44 | 45 | ▼ -7.0 | 38 | 33 | |
| SOLO | Tametoy | 3/6/2 | 0.83 | 31 | ▼ -1.9 | 29 | 14 | |
| SUPPORT NEW | edith | 0/8/5 | 0.63 | -9 | ▼ -3.6 | -12 | 2 |
CHAOS (WIN) 43 kills Team Δ +36.6
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE NEW | Sink TOP DMG | 21/2/13 | 17.00 | -2 | ▲ +9.0 | 7 | 1 | |
| ADC | RogueThrone C | 3/2/13 | 8.00 | -122 | ▲ +3.6 | -118 | 66 | |
| MID OFF-ROLE | SnixJ MVP | 11/1/13 | 24.00 | -11 | ▲ +12.3 | 2 | 3 | |
| SOLO THIRD | Jonhy0700 | 6/3/11 | 5.67 | 41 | ▲ +3.1 | 44 | 101 | |
| SUPPORT OFF-ROLE | Kryooo | 2/2/23 | 12.50 | 34 | ▲ +8.6 | 42 | 52 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 0
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | SnixJ | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Sink | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | edith | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Obsidian III | Platinum II PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Tametoy | Bronze I | Amber III PLACEMENT |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | DeltaJulz613 | Silver II | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Kryooo | Bronze I | Bronze III |
| MID | Riptzer | Diamond III | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | RogueThrone | ROFFLE Tier | Dog Shit II |
| SUPPORT | Jonhy0700 | Silver III | Amber III PLACEMENT |
What changed vs actual draft
- Tametoy: ORDER SOLO → ORDER SUPPORT
- Weak3n: ORDER JUNGLE → ORDER SOLO
- edith: ORDER SUPPORT → ORDER MID
- SnixJ: CHAOS MID → ORDER JUNGLE
- Sink: CHAOS JUNGLE → ORDER ADC
- Riptzer: ORDER ADC → CHAOS MID
- DeltaJulz613: ORDER MID → CHAOS JUNGLE
- Jonhy0700: CHAOS SOLO → CHAOS SUPPORT
- RogueThrone: CHAOS ADC → CHAOS SOLO
- Kryooo: CHAOS SUPPORT → CHAOS ADC