ORDER WIN
UPSET
05/03/2026 · Match #1 · Conquest
Confirmed by Jalopy on 5/4/2026, 1:30:14 PM
Kills
45 – 18
MVP · best KDA
Riptzer 1/1/25
Biggest Elo gain
Riptzer +16.7
Biggest Elo drop
Imdead -6.4
Balance Analysis
Based on 94 prior matchesORDER
45% win prob
Δ 32
Lean CHAOS
UPSET — underdog won
CHAOS
55% win prob
Order win probChaos win prob
Calibrated model prediction: 100% Order / 0% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
sillyslother
OVR
Gold I
JUNGLE
Poo Poo II
SLIGHT EDGE — Chaos
gap 21 · 53% favored
OSteg
OVR
Bronze I
JUNGLE
Amber I PLACEMENT
ADC
RogueThrone
OVR
ROFFLE Tier
ADC
ROFFLE Tier
CLEAR EDGE — Chaos
gap 45 · 56% favored
Jonhy0700
OVR
Bronze II
ADC
ROFFLE Tier
MID
[CopebbyEsports] MindyRox420
OVR
Bronze III
MID
Amber III PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 9 · 51% favored
Imdead
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
MID
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Zikze
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 0 · 50% favored
S1N1573R177
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Riptzer
OVR
Platinum II
SUPPORT
Platinum I
CLEAR EDGE — Order
gap 40 · 56% favored
Weak3n
OVR
Obsidian III
SUPPORT
Gold III PLACEMENT
ORDER (WIN) 45 kills Team Δ +32.7
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE SECONDARY | sillyslother | 17/4/14 | 7.75 | 78 | ▲ +3.7 | 82 | 52 | |
| ADC | RogueThrone | 9/2/13 | 11.00 | -144 | ▲ +5.0 | -139 | 60 | |
| MID SECONDARY | [CopebbyEsports] MindyRox420 TOP DMG | 14/9/13 | 3.00 | 17 | ▲ +1.9 | 19 | 21 | |
| SOLO NEW | Zikze | 4/2/17 | 10.50 | 0 | ▲ +5.5 | 6 | 0 | |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer MVP C | 1/1/25 | 26.00 | 91 | ▲ +16.7 | 108 | 60 |
CHAOS (LOSS) 18 kills Team Δ -21.5
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE OFF-ROLE | OSteg | 4/11/2 | 0.55 | 32 | ▼ -6.0 | 26 | 46 | |
| ADC THIRD | Jonhy0700 C | 2/8/6 | 1.00 | 25 | ▼ -3.7 | 21 | 86 | |
| MID | Imdead | 4/12/9 | 1.08 | 2 | ▼ -6.4 | -5 | 7 | |
| SOLO NEW | S1N1573R177 | 4/6/6 | 1.67 | 0 | ▼ -3.9 | -4 | 0 | |
| SUPPORT OFF-ROLE | Weak3n | 4/8/11 | 1.88 | 143 | ▼ -1.5 | 141 | 94 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 1
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | OSteg | Bronze I | Amber I PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Imdead | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | Riptzer | Platinum II | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | RogueThrone | ROFFLE Tier | Dog Shit II |
| SUPPORT | [CopebbyEsports] MindyRox420 | Bronze III | Bronze I PLACEMENT |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Zikze | rookie | |
| ADC | S1N1573R177 | rookie | |
| MID | Jonhy0700 | Bronze II | Bronze III |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Obsidian III | Platinum II PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | sillyslother | Gold I | Gold II |
What changed vs actual draft
- [CopebbyEsports] MindyRox420: ORDER MID → ORDER SUPPORT
- RogueThrone: ORDER ADC → ORDER SOLO
- Riptzer: ORDER SUPPORT → ORDER MID
- Imdead: CHAOS MID → ORDER ADC
- OSteg: CHAOS JUNGLE → ORDER JUNGLE
- sillyslother: ORDER JUNGLE → CHAOS SUPPORT
- Zikze: ORDER SOLO → CHAOS JUNGLE
- Weak3n: CHAOS SUPPORT → CHAOS SOLO
- Jonhy0700: CHAOS ADC → CHAOS MID
- S1N1573R177: CHAOS SOLO → CHAOS ADC
Notes / Flags
- S1N1573R177 [weak3n_said]: yo this Sobek is a fucking bot bro
- S1N1573R177 [shitter]: bad plucks bad build could be trolling