ORDER WIN
04/30/2026 · Match #4 · Conquest
Confirmed by Jalopy on 5/1/2026, 3:35:20 PM
Kills
43 – 35
MVP · best KDA
Riptzer 3/3/16
Biggest Elo gain
Riptzer +12.4
Biggest Elo drop
RogueThrone -8.5
Balance Analysis
Based on 91 prior matchesORDER
50% win prob
Δ 3
Balanced
CHAOS
50% win prob
Order win probChaos win prob
Calibrated model prediction: 53% Order / 47% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
sillyslother
OVR
Gold I
JUNGLE
Poo Poo III
MISMATCH — Chaos
gap 105 · 65% favored
Weak3n
OVR
Obsidian II
JUNGLE
Platinum III
ADC
Tricky
OVR
ROFFLE Tier
ADC
Amber I PLACEMENT
MISMATCH — Order
gap 80 · 61% favored
RogueThrone
OVR
ROFFLE Tier
ADC
ROFFLE Tier
MID
Shmeep
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
MID
Amber III PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 3 · 50% favored
DeltaJulz613
OVR
Bronze II
MID
Amber III
SOLO
Horrify
OVR
Dog Shit I
SOLO
Amber II
EVEN
gap 6 · 51% favored
Jonhy0700
OVR
Bronze II
SOLO
Amber III
SUPPORT
Riptzer
OVR
Gold I
SUPPORT
Platinum III
MISMATCH — Order
gap 87 · 62% favored
TT
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Amber III PLACEMENT
ORDER (WIN) 43 kills Team Δ +29.8
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE SECONDARY | sillyslother TOP DMG | 19/7/7 | 3.71 | 80 | ▲ +6.0 | 86 | 50 | |
| ADC SECONDARY | Tricky | 11/8/8 | 2.38 | -40 | ▲ +3.8 | -36 | 19 | |
| MID SECONDARY | Shmeep | 4/12/14 | 1.50 | -12 | ▲ +2.2 | -10 | 3 | |
| SOLO | Horrify | 6/5/11 | 3.40 | -17 | ▲ +5.5 | -12 | 25 | |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer MVP C | 3/3/16 | 6.33 | 73 | ▲ +12.4 | 86 | 57 |
CHAOS (LOSS) 35 kills Team Δ -24.5
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Weak3n | 14/11/6 | 1.82 | 159 | ▼ -7.2 | 152 | 91 | |
| ADC | RogueThrone | 8/10/8 | 1.60 | -136 | ▼ -8.5 | -144 | 57 | |
| MID | DeltaJulz613 | 7/6/16 | 3.83 | 24 | ▼ -3.7 | 21 | 25 | |
| SOLO THIRD | Jonhy0700 C | 4/8/15 | 2.38 | 27 | ▼ -2.6 | 25 | 83 | |
| SUPPORT THIRD | TT | 2/6/10 | 2.00 | -5 | ▼ -2.7 | -8 | 6 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 2
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | DeltaJulz613 | Bronze II | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Shmeep | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | Jonhy0700 | Bronze II | Bronze II |
| SOLO | Horrify | Dog Shit I | Amber II |
| SUPPORT | sillyslother | Gold I | Gold I |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | TT | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Tricky | ROFFLE Tier | Amber I PLACEMENT |
| MID | RogueThrone | ROFFLE Tier | ROFFLE Tier |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Obsidian II | Platinum II PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer | Gold I | Platinum III |
What changed vs actual draft
- Shmeep: ORDER MID → ORDER ADC
- sillyslother: ORDER JUNGLE → ORDER SUPPORT
- Jonhy0700: CHAOS SOLO → ORDER MID
- DeltaJulz613: CHAOS MID → ORDER JUNGLE
- Riptzer: ORDER SUPPORT → CHAOS SUPPORT
- Tricky: ORDER ADC → CHAOS ADC
- Weak3n: CHAOS JUNGLE → CHAOS SOLO
- RogueThrone: CHAOS ADC → CHAOS MID
- TT: CHAOS SUPPORT → CHAOS JUNGLE
Notes / Flags
- TT [weak3n_said]: ITS A KALI WITH NO BEADS, WTF IS WRONG WITH YOU
- TT [weak3n_said]: Just griefed that entire fucking game, I'm actually just dumbfounded
- TT [shitter]: didnt knock up or pull kali