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04/17/2026 · Match #5 · Conquest CONFIRMED

Edit

Confirmed by Jalopy on 4/29/2026, 9:29:05 PM

CHAOS WIN · Weak3n: WITH · Length: 28:01

VOD: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/2750664004?t=02h20m55s @ 8455s

Balance Analysis

Based on 84 prior matches

ORDER

55% win prob

Δ 33

Lean ORDER UPSET — underdog won

CHAOS

-10

45% win prob

Lane Matchups

Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.

JUNGLE

Weak3n

OVR Obsidian II

JUNGLE Platinum II

MISMATCH — Order gap 117 · 66% favored

Ceart

OVR Amber III PLACEMENT

JUNGLE Amber III PLACEMENT

ADC

RogueThrone

OVR ROFFLE Tier

ADC ROFFLE Tier

MISMATCH — Chaos gap 61 · 59% favored

Complexstranger

OVR Amber III PLACEMENT

ADC Amber III PLACEMENT

MID

Neo

OVR Amber III PLACEMENT

MID Amber III PLACEMENT

SLIGHT EDGE — Chaos gap 12 · 52% favored

Jonhy0700

OVR Bronze III

MID Amber I

SOLO

[CopebbyEsports] MindyRox420

OVR Amber II

SOLO Amber II PLACEMENT

EVEN gap 10 · 51% favored

BiggieSlaps

OVR Amber III PLACEMENT

SOLO Amber III PLACEMENT

SUPPORT

Riptzer

OVR Gold III

SUPPORT Platinum III

MISMATCH — Order gap 91 · 63% favored

SpideryBacchus9

OVR Amber III PLACEMENT

SUPPORT Amber III PLACEMENT

ORDER (LOSS) Team Δ -27.0

Role	Player	God	K	D	A	Before	Δ	After	GP
JUNGLE	Weak3n TOP DMG	Vulcan	5	3	5	166	-1.8	164	84
ADC	RogueThrone C	Xbalanque	0	5	5	-124	-7.3	-131	50
MID NEW	Neo	Ullr	3	9	6	0	-6.1	-6	0
SOLO THIRD	[CopebbyEsports] MindyRox420	Izanami	2	8	2	9	-5.8	3	17
SUPPORT	Riptzer	Hades	2	7	4	64	-6.0	58	51

CHAOS (WIN) Team Δ +32.8

Role	Player	God	K	D	A	Before	Δ	After	GP
JUNGLE SECONDARY	Ceart	Mercury	9	2	11	-32	+5.9	-26	5
ADC NEW	Complexstranger	Nu Wa	3	5	10	0	+1.9	2	0
MID THIRD	Jonhy0700	sol	13	1	7	16	+12.3	29	80
SOLO OFF-ROLE	BiggieSlaps C	Zeus	6	2	12	-14	+5.7	-8	3
SUPPORT	SpideryBacchus9	Geb	1	2	16	-20	+6.9	-13	8

Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers

Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split

ORDER

-3

50% win prob

Δ 2

most balanced split

CHAOS

-4

50% win prob

ORDER · optimal

Role	Player	Overall	In Role
JUNGLE	[CopebbyEsports] MindyRox420	Amber II	Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC	SpideryBacchus9	Amber III PLACEMENT	Amber III PLACEMENT
MID	BiggieSlaps	Amber III PLACEMENT	Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO	RogueThrone	ROFFLE Tier	Dog Shit I
SUPPORT	Riptzer	Gold III	Platinum III

CHAOS · optimal

Role	Player	Overall	In Role
JUNGLE	Ceart	Amber III PLACEMENT	Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC	Complexstranger	rookie
MID	Neo	rookie
SOLO	Weak3n	Obsidian II	Platinum II PLACEMENT
SUPPORT	Jonhy0700	Bronze III	Amber III PLACEMENT

What changed vs actual draft

[CopebbyEsports] MindyRox420: ORDER SOLO → ORDER JUNGLE
RogueThrone: ORDER ADC → ORDER SOLO
SpideryBacchus9: CHAOS SUPPORT → ORDER ADC
BiggieSlaps: CHAOS SOLO → ORDER MID
Neo: ORDER MID → CHAOS MID
Weak3n: ORDER JUNGLE → CHAOS SOLO
Jonhy0700: CHAOS MID → CHAOS SUPPORT

Notes / Flags

RogueThrone [shitter]: terrible positioning
Neo [shitter]: missed all the axes
[CopebbyEsports] MindyRox420 [shitter]: iza solo bottom dmg in entire game
Neo [weak3n_said]: motherfucker they have a Zeus and you try to hump your teammates
[CopebbyEsports] MindyRox420 [weak3n_said]: dont do that fuckin shit again zamoo, get in the fuckin fight clear the objective
Neo [weak3n_said]: Cant hit an fuckin axe to save his life
Jonhy0700 [weak3n_said]: Split push mcgee
Neo [weak3n_said]: Maybe he'll hit an ullr axe tomorrow, wont hold my breath tho
[CopebbyEsports] MindyRox420 [weak3n_said]: Im playing with a shit lord and fuckin 2 turd munchers - turd muncher #1
Neo [weak3n_said]: Im playing with a shit lord and fuckin 2 turd munchers - shit lord
RogueThrone [weak3n_said]: Im playing with a shit lord and fuckin 2 turd munchers - turd muncher #2