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CHAOS WIN UPSET

04/17/2026 · Match #5 · Conquest

CONFIRMED Weak3n: WITH ⏱ 28:01 ▶ Watch VOD

Confirmed by Jalopy on 4/29/2026, 9:29:05 PM

Edit
Kills 12 – 32
MVP · best KDA Jonhy0700 13/1/7
Biggest Elo gain Jonhy0700 +12.3
Biggest Elo drop RogueThrone -7.3

Balance Analysis

Based on 84 prior matches
ORDER
23
55% win prob
Δ 33
Lean ORDER UPSET — underdog won
CHAOS
-10
45% win prob
55%
45%
Order win probChaos win prob

Calibrated model prediction: 78% Order / 22% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).

Lane Matchups

Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.

JUNGLE
Weak3n
OVR Obsidian II
JUNGLE Platinum II
MISMATCH — Order gap 117 · 66% favored
Ceart
OVR Amber III PLACEMENT
JUNGLE Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC
RogueThrone
OVR ROFFLE Tier
ADC ROFFLE Tier
MISMATCH — Chaos gap 61 · 59% favored
Complexstranger
OVR Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC Amber III PLACEMENT
MID
Neo
OVR Amber III PLACEMENT
MID Amber III PLACEMENT
SLIGHT EDGE — Chaos gap 12 · 52% favored
Jonhy0700
OVR Bronze III
MID Amber I
SOLO
[CopebbyEsports] MindyRox420
OVR Amber II
SOLO Amber II PLACEMENT
EVEN gap 10 · 51% favored
BiggieSlaps
OVR Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO Amber III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Riptzer
OVR Gold III
SUPPORT Platinum III
MISMATCH — Order gap 91 · 63% favored
SpideryBacchus9
OVR Amber III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT Amber III PLACEMENT

ORDER (LOSS) 12 kills Team Δ -27.0

RolePlayerGodK/D/AKDA BeforeΔAfterGP
JUNGLE Weak3n TOP DMG 5/3/5 3.33 166 ▼ -1.8 164 84
ADC RogueThrone C 0/5/5 1.00 -124 ▼ -7.3 -131 50
MID NEW Neo 3/9/6 1.00 0 ▼ -6.1 -6 0
SOLO THIRD [CopebbyEsports] MindyRox420 2/8/2 0.50 9 ▼ -5.8 3 17
SUPPORT Riptzer 2/7/4 0.86 64 ▼ -6.0 58 51

CHAOS (WIN) 32 kills Team Δ +32.8

RolePlayerGodK/D/AKDA BeforeΔAfterGP
JUNGLE SECONDARY Ceart 9/2/11 10.00 -32 ▲ +5.9 -26 5
ADC NEW Complexstranger 3/5/10 2.60 0 ▲ +1.9 2 0
MID THIRD Jonhy0700 MVP 13/1/7 20.00 16 ▲ +12.3 29 80
SOLO OFF-ROLE BiggieSlaps C 6/2/12 9.00 -14 ▲ +5.7 -8 3
SUPPORT SpideryBacchus9 1/2/16 8.50 -20 ▲ +6.9 -13 8

Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers

Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split

ORDER
-3
50% win prob
Δ 2
most balanced split
CHAOS
-4
50% win prob

ORDER · optimal

RolePlayerOverallIn Role
JUNGLE [CopebbyEsports] MindyRox420 Amber II Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC SpideryBacchus9 Amber III PLACEMENT Amber III PLACEMENT
MID BiggieSlaps Amber III PLACEMENT Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO RogueThrone ROFFLE Tier Dog Shit I
SUPPORT Riptzer Gold III Platinum III

CHAOS · optimal

RolePlayerOverallIn Role
JUNGLE Ceart Amber III PLACEMENT Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC Complexstranger rookie
MID Neo rookie
SOLO Weak3n Obsidian II Platinum II PLACEMENT
SUPPORT Jonhy0700 Bronze III Amber III PLACEMENT

What changed vs actual draft

Notes / Flags