CHAOS WIN
04/17/2026 · Match #1 · Conquest
Confirmed by Jalopy on 4/29/2026, 8:35:02 PM
Kills
19 – 43
MVP · best KDA
Giftie 8/2/11
Biggest Elo gain
Giftie +7.3
Biggest Elo drop
InspectorCody -8.1
Balance Analysis
Based on 80 prior matchesORDER
43% win prob
Δ 50
Lean CHAOS
CHAOS
57% win prob
Order win probChaos win prob
Calibrated model prediction: 33% Order / 67% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
AlphaClaps
OVR
Bronze II
JUNGLE
Amber III PLACEMENT
MISMATCH — Chaos
gap 64 · 59% favored
Weak3n
OVR
Diamond I
JUNGLE
Gold II
ADC
InspectorCody
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC
Amber III PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 4 · 51% favored
JuiceMan28
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC
Amber III PLACEMENT
MID
RogueThrone
OVR
ROFFLE Tier
MID
Amber III PLACEMENT
MISMATCH — Chaos
gap 71 · 60% favored
Jonhy0700
OVR
Bronze III
MID
Amber II
SOLO
Heat
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 7 · 51% favored
Giftie
OVR
Amber II PLACEMENT
SOLO
Amber II PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Riptzer
OVR
Silver I
SUPPORT
Gold II
CLEAR EDGE — Order
gap 45 · 56% favored
Jalopy
OVR
Silver III
SUPPORT
Bronze II PLACEMENT
ORDER (LOSS) 19 kills Team Δ -25.7
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE SECONDARY | AlphaClaps C | 9/10/6 | 1.50 | 27 | ▼ -3.4 | 24 | 29 | |
| ADC NEW | InspectorCody | 2/10/5 | 0.70 | -6 | ▼ -8.1 | -14 | 2 | |
| MID THIRD | RogueThrone | 4/10/8 | 1.20 | -121 | ▼ -4.5 | -125 | 46 | |
| SOLO NEW | Heat | 3/8/3 | 0.75 | 0 | ▼ -6.9 | -7 | 0 | |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer | 1/5/6 | 1.40 | 51 | ▼ -2.9 | 48 | 47 |
CHAOS (WIN) 43 kills Team Δ +25.7
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Weak3n | 8/5/11 | 3.80 | 137 | ▲ +2.8 | 139 | 80 | |
| ADC | JuiceMan28 TOP DMG | 16/3/7 | 7.67 | -2 | ▲ +6.2 | 4 | 3 | |
| MID THIRD | Jonhy0700 C | 10/4/12 | 5.50 | 21 | ▲ +4.1 | 25 | 76 | |
| SOLO | Giftie MVP | 8/2/11 | 9.50 | 7 | ▲ +7.3 | 15 | 4 | |
| SUPPORT | Jalopy | 1/5/25 | 5.20 | 38 | ▲ +5.3 | 43 | 11 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 1
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | InspectorCody | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | RogueThrone | ROFFLE Tier | ROFFLE Tier |
| MID | JuiceMan28 | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Diamond I | Platinum II PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Jonhy0700 | Bronze III | Amber III PLACEMENT |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Jalopy | Silver III | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | AlphaClaps | Bronze II | Bronze I PLACEMENT |
| MID | Heat | rookie | |
| SOLO | Giftie | Amber II PLACEMENT | Amber II PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer | Silver I | Gold II |
What changed vs actual draft
- InspectorCody: ORDER ADC → ORDER JUNGLE
- RogueThrone: ORDER MID → ORDER ADC
- JuiceMan28: CHAOS ADC → ORDER MID
- Weak3n: CHAOS JUNGLE → ORDER SOLO
- Jonhy0700: CHAOS MID → ORDER SUPPORT
- Riptzer: ORDER SUPPORT → CHAOS SUPPORT
- AlphaClaps: ORDER JUNGLE → CHAOS ADC
- Heat: ORDER SOLO → CHAOS MID
- Jalopy: CHAOS SUPPORT → CHAOS JUNGLE
Notes / Flags
- InspectorCody [shitter]: fed juiceman