CHAOS WIN
08/12/2026 · Match #8 · Conquest
Confirmed by Jalopy on 8/14/2026, 4:51:30 PM
Kills
12 – 32
MVP · best KDA
Weak3n 7/1/13
Biggest Elo gain
Jigann +11.0
Biggest Elo drop
Shmeep -7.6
Balance Analysis
Based on 241 prior matchesORDER
50% win prob
Δ 3
Balanced
CHAOS
50% win prob
Order win probChaos win prob
Calibrated model prediction: 100% Order / 0% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
Jonhy0700
OVR
Platinum I
JUNGLE
ROFFLE Tier
CLEAR EDGE — Chaos
gap 52 · 57% favored
OSteg
OVR
Bronze II
JUNGLE
Amber I
ADC
Kryooo
OVR
Obsidian I
ADC
Silver II
SLIGHT EDGE — Order
gap 25 · 54% favored
Weak3n
OVR
Obsidian III
ADC
Bronze III
MID
Malenia
OVR
Poo Poo I
MID
Amber III
EVEN
gap 8 · 51% favored
C1prY
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
MID
Amber II PLACEMENT
SOLO
Shmeep
OVR
Dog Shit I
SOLO
Dog Shit I
SLIGHT EDGE — Chaos
gap 20 · 53% favored
Jones3Gaming
OVR
Poo Poo I
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Ultima
OVR
Bronze III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Amber III PLACEMENT
MISMATCH — Chaos
gap 70 · 60% favored
Jigann
OVR
Gold I
SUPPORT
Gold II
ORDER (LOSS) 12 kills Team Δ -25.8
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Jonhy0700 | 1/6/3 | 0.67 | 102 | ▼ -7.5 | 94 | 176 | |
| ADC | Kryooo | 2/4/5 | 1.75 | 175 | ▼ -3.0 | 172 | 114 | |
| MID | Malenia | 4/6/5 | 1.50 | -3 | ▼ -3.2 | -6 | 16 | |
| SOLO | Shmeep C | 4/7/1 | 0.71 | -17 | ▼ -7.6 | -25 | 21 | |
| SUPPORT OFF-ROLE | Ultima | 1/9/3 | 0.44 | 16 | ▼ -4.5 | 12 | 5 |
CHAOS (WIN) 32 kills Team Δ +30.3
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE OFF-ROLE | OSteg C | 3/4/15 | 4.50 | 24 | ▲ +2.3 | 27 | 110 | |
| ADC OFF-ROLE | Weak3n MVP | 7/1/13 | 20.00 | 152 | ▲ +10.3 | 162 | 241 | |
| MID | C1prY TOP DMG | 12/3/9 | 7.00 | 5 | ▲ +3.9 | 9 | 3 | |
| SOLO | Jones3Gaming | 2/4/16 | 4.50 | 0 | ▲ +2.8 | 2 | 11 | |
| SUPPORT | Jigann | 8/0/11 | 19.00 | 75 | ▲ +11.0 | 86 | 40 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 1
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Malenia | Poo Poo I | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Shmeep | Dog Shit I | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | Kryooo | Obsidian I | Bronze I PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | Jonhy0700 | Platinum I | Platinum III |
| SUPPORT | Ultima | Bronze III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | OSteg | Bronze II | Amber I |
| ADC | Jigann | Gold I | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | C1prY | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber II PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Obsidian III | Platinum I PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Jones3Gaming | Poo Poo I | Amber III PLACEMENT |
What changed vs actual draft
- Shmeep: ORDER SOLO → ORDER ADC
- Jonhy0700: ORDER JUNGLE → ORDER SOLO
- Kryooo: ORDER ADC → ORDER MID
- Malenia: ORDER MID → ORDER JUNGLE
- Weak3n: CHAOS ADC → CHAOS SOLO
- Jigann: CHAOS SUPPORT → CHAOS ADC
- Jones3Gaming: CHAOS SOLO → CHAOS SUPPORT