CHAOS WIN
UPSET
08/03/2026 · Match #2 · Conquest
Confirmed by Jalopy on 8/10/2026, 10:59:44 PM
Kills
24 – 25
MVP · best KDA
OSteg 8/3/12
Biggest Elo gain
OSteg +10.2
Biggest Elo drop
ScoobySnaccs -8.9
Balance Analysis
Based on 225 prior matchesORDER
55% win prob
Δ 32
Lean ORDER
UPSET — underdog won
CHAOS
45% win prob
Order win probChaos win prob
Calibrated model prediction: 100% Order / 0% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
Jonhy0700
OVR
Platinum II
JUNGLE
ROFFLE Tier
MISMATCH — Chaos
gap 107 · 65% favored
Weak3n
OVR
Diamond I
JUNGLE
Gold II
ADC
ScoobySnaccs
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC
Amber III PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 4 · 51% favored
TenochMedina
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC
Amber III PLACEMENT
MID
framaboy
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
MID
Amber III PLACEMENT
SLIGHT EDGE — Order
gap 16 · 52% favored
OSteg
OVR
Bronze II
MID
Dog Shit I
SOLO
no
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
SLIGHT EDGE — Order
gap 19 · 53% favored
Spoon
OVR
Dog Shit I
SOLO
Dog Shit I
SUPPORT
Riptzer
OVR
Demigod
SUPPORT
Demigod
MISMATCH — Order
gap 237 · 80% favored
Jigann
OVR
Silver III
SUPPORT
Bronze I
ORDER (LOSS) 24 kills Team Δ -32.8
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Jonhy0700 | 9/5/8 | 3.40 | 99 | ▼ -5.2 | 94 | 172 | |
| ADC NEW | ScoobySnaccs | 3/5/8 | 2.20 | 0 | ▼ -8.9 | -9 | 0 | |
| MID NEW | framaboy | 5/3/8 | 4.33 | 0 | ▼ -4.2 | -4 | 0 | |
| SOLO NEW | no | 5/4/7 | 3.00 | 0 | ▼ -5.8 | -6 | 0 | |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer C | 2/8/11 | 1.63 | 237 | ▼ -8.6 | 229 | 148 |
CHAOS (WIN) 25 kills Team Δ +32.8
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Weak3n | 3/4/17 | 5.00 | 134 | ▲ +7.2 | 142 | 225 | |
| ADC | TenochMedina | 9/6/5 | 2.33 | -4 | ▲ +3.8 | 0 | 4 | |
| MID SECONDARY | OSteg MVP TOP DMG | 8/3/12 | 6.67 | 23 | ▲ +10.2 | 33 | 103 | |
| SOLO | Spoon | 3/3/11 | 4.67 | -18 | ▲ +8.1 | -10 | 23 | |
| SUPPORT | Jigann C | 2/8/12 | 1.75 | 40 | ▲ +3.5 | 44 | 29 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 1
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | ScoobySnaccs | rookie | |
| ADC | Jigann | Silver III | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | Spoon | Dog Shit I | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Diamond I | Platinum II PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Jonhy0700 | Platinum II | Amber II PLACEMENT |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | framaboy | rookie | |
| ADC | TenochMedina | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | no | rookie | |
| SOLO | OSteg | Bronze II | Silver II |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer | Demigod | Demigod |
What changed vs actual draft
- Jonhy0700: ORDER JUNGLE → ORDER SUPPORT
- ScoobySnaccs: ORDER ADC → ORDER JUNGLE
- Spoon: CHAOS SOLO → ORDER MID
- Weak3n: CHAOS JUNGLE → ORDER SOLO
- Jigann: CHAOS SUPPORT → ORDER ADC
- Riptzer: ORDER SUPPORT → CHAOS SUPPORT
- framaboy: ORDER MID → CHAOS JUNGLE
- no: ORDER SOLO → CHAOS MID
- OSteg: CHAOS MID → CHAOS SOLO