CHAOS WIN
07/16/2026 · Match #2 · Conquest
Confirmed by Jalopy on 8/10/2026, 11:02:16 PM
Kills
31 – 41
MVP · best KDA
Bibby 9/4/18
Biggest Elo gain
Bibby +8.4
Biggest Elo drop
AlphaClaps -10.2
Balance Analysis
Based on 221 prior matchesORDER
45% win prob
Δ 32
Lean CHAOS
CHAOS
55% win prob
Order win probChaos win prob
Calibrated model prediction: 100% Order / 0% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
AlphaClaps
OVR
Gold II
JUNGLE
Bronze II
CLEAR EDGE — Chaos
gap 53 · 58% favored
Weak3n
OVR
Obsidian III
JUNGLE
Gold I
ADC
i cant read
OVR
ROFFLE Tier
ADC
ROFFLE Tier
SLIGHT EDGE — Chaos
gap 18 · 53% favored
OSteg
OVR
Bronze III
ADC
ROFFLE Tier
MID
ItzStallone
OVR
Gold II
MID
Silver I
SLIGHT EDGE — Order
gap 30 · 54% favored
JuiceMan28
OVR
Bronze III PLACEMENT
MID
Bronze III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Spoon
OVR
Poo Poo II
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
SLIGHT EDGE — Chaos
gap 24 · 53% favored
Bibby
OVR
Bronze II PLACEMENT
SOLO
Bronze III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
iRoFFLe
OVR
Dog Shit I
SUPPORT
Amber I
SLIGHT EDGE — Order
gap 13 · 52% favored
ForeverNeoo
OVR
Amber II
SUPPORT
Amber III PLACEMENT
ORDER (LOSS) 31 kills Team Δ -27.3
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE SECONDARY | AlphaClaps | 6/13/9 | 1.15 | 70 | ▼ -10.2 | 60 | 51 | |
| ADC | i cant read C | 15/9/3 | 2.00 | -51 | ▼ -5.1 | -56 | 76 | |
| MID | ItzStallone | 5/8/14 | 2.38 | 69 | ▼ -5.1 | 64 | 41 | |
| SOLO | Spoon | 2/5/9 | 2.20 | -10 | ▼ -4.6 | -14 | 19 | |
| SUPPORT | iRoFFLe | 3/6/20 | 3.83 | -16 | ▼ -2.3 | -19 | 62 |
CHAOS (WIN) 41 kills Team Δ +27.3
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Weak3n | 8/6/15 | 3.83 | 144 | ▲ +4.3 | 149 | 221 | |
| ADC THIRD | OSteg C | 10/10/6 | 1.60 | 21 | ▲ +2.0 | 23 | 102 | |
| MID | JuiceMan28 | 9/4/17 | 6.50 | 22 | ▲ +7.4 | 29 | 7 | |
| SOLO | Bibby MVP TOP DMG | 9/4/18 | 6.75 | 27 | ▲ +8.4 | 36 | 7 | |
| SUPPORT OFF-ROLE | ForeverNeoo | 5/7/20 | 3.57 | 6 | ▲ +5.2 | 11 | 10 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 0
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | JuiceMan28 | Bronze III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | ForeverNeoo | Amber II | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | Spoon | Poo Poo II | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Obsidian III | Platinum II PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | iRoFFLe | Dog Shit I | Amber I |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | i cant read | ROFFLE Tier | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Bibby | Bronze II PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | AlphaClaps | Gold II | Silver III PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | OSteg | Bronze III | Silver II |
| SUPPORT | ItzStallone | Gold II | Bronze I PLACEMENT |
What changed vs actual draft
- Spoon: ORDER SOLO → ORDER MID
- JuiceMan28: CHAOS MID → ORDER JUNGLE
- Weak3n: CHAOS JUNGLE → ORDER SOLO
- ForeverNeoo: CHAOS SUPPORT → ORDER ADC
- AlphaClaps: ORDER JUNGLE → CHAOS MID
- ItzStallone: ORDER MID → CHAOS SUPPORT
- i cant read: ORDER ADC → CHAOS JUNGLE
- Bibby: CHAOS SOLO → CHAOS ADC
- OSteg: CHAOS ADC → CHAOS SOLO