CHAOS WIN
UPSET
07/14/2026 · Match #5 · Conquest
Kills
23 – 32
MVP · best KDA
Weak3n 8/2/16
Biggest Elo gain
Weak3n +14.6
Biggest Elo drop
Malenia -5.6
Balance Analysis
Based on 213 prior matchesORDER
54% win prob
Δ 26
Lean ORDER
UPSET — underdog won
CHAOS
46% win prob
Order win probChaos win prob
Calibrated model prediction: 0% Order / 100% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
Spoon
OVR
Poo Poo I
JUNGLE
Amber III PLACEMENT
MISMATCH — Chaos
gap 83 · 62% favored
Weak3n
OVR
Diamond I
JUNGLE
Gold III
ADC
Riptzer
OVR
Master I
ADC
Dog Shit I
CLEAR EDGE — Order
gap 37 · 55% favored
i cant read
OVR
ROFFLE Tier
ADC
ROFFLE Tier
MID
Malenia
OVR
Amber I PLACEMENT
MID
Amber I PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 4 · 51% favored
v Riddler v
OVR
Amber II PLACEMENT
MID
Amber II PLACEMENT
SOLO
Jones3Gaming
OVR
Amber I PLACEMENT
SOLO
Amber I PLACEMENT
SLIGHT EDGE — Order
gap 10 · 51% favored
ForeverNeoo
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
iRoFFLe
OVR
Poo Poo I
SUPPORT
Bronze II
CLEAR EDGE — Order
gap 40 · 56% favored
Horrify
OVR
Amber II
SUPPORT
Dog Shit I
ORDER (LOSS) 23 kills Team Δ -21.6
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE SECONDARY | Spoon | 1/4/13 | 3.50 | -2 | ▼ -2.1 | -4 | 12 | |
| ADC THIRD | Riptzer | 7/8/6 | 1.63 | 211 | ▼ -4.1 | 207 | 138 | |
| MID | Malenia | 5/6/10 | 2.50 | 12 | ▼ -5.6 | 6 | 7 | |
| SOLO | Jones3Gaming | 6/8/6 | 1.50 | 12 | ▼ -4.5 | 7 | 4 | |
| SUPPORT | iRoFFLe | 4/6/9 | 2.17 | -4 | ▼ -5.4 | -9 | 59 |
CHAOS (WIN) 32 kills Team Δ +32.3
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Weak3n MVP | 8/2/16 | 12.00 | 130 | ▲ +14.6 | 145 | 213 | |
| ADC | i cant read | 8/4/11 | 4.75 | -55 | ▲ +5.8 | -49 | 70 | |
| MID NEW | v Riddler v | 3/9/11 | 1.56 | 7 | ▲ +1.9 | 9 | 1 | |
| SOLO | ForeverNeoo | 8/3/8 | 5.33 | 3 | ▲ +6.7 | 10 | 3 | |
| SUPPORT SECONDARY | Horrify | 5/5/7 | 2.40 | 10 | ▲ +3.2 | 13 | 45 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
51% win prob
Δ 6
most balanced split
CHAOS
49% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | i cant read | ROFFLE Tier | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | ForeverNeoo | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | Spoon | Poo Poo I | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | v Riddler v | Amber II PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer | Master I | Demigod |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Malenia | Amber I PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Horrify | Amber II | Bronze III PLACEMENT |
| MID | Jones3Gaming | Amber I PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Diamond I | Platinum II PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | iRoFFLe | Poo Poo I | Bronze II |
What changed vs actual draft
- Spoon: ORDER JUNGLE → ORDER MID
- Riptzer: ORDER ADC → ORDER SUPPORT
- i cant read: CHAOS ADC → ORDER JUNGLE
- v Riddler v: CHAOS MID → ORDER SOLO
- ForeverNeoo: CHAOS SOLO → ORDER ADC
- iRoFFLe: ORDER SUPPORT → CHAOS SUPPORT
- Malenia: ORDER MID → CHAOS JUNGLE
- Jones3Gaming: ORDER SOLO → CHAOS MID
- Weak3n: CHAOS JUNGLE → CHAOS SOLO
- Horrify: CHAOS SUPPORT → CHAOS ADC
Notes / Flags
- i cant read [general]: cap
- Malenia [general]: cap top