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04/21/2026 · Match #23 · Conquest UNCONFIRMED

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ORDER WIN · Weak3n: WITH

VOD: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/2753124660?t=2h50m20s @ 10220s

Balance Analysis

Based on 20 prior matches

ORDER

15

50% win prob

Δ 3

Balanced

CHAOS

12

50% win prob

ORDER (WIN) Team Δ +111.6

Role	Player	God	K	D	A	Elo Before	Δ	Elo After	Games
SUPPORT OFF-ROLE	Weak3n	Ne Zha	9	3	9	27	+25.7	52	20
MID SECONDARY	iRoFFLe	Kukulkan	4	2	16	-33	+26.2	-6	7
JUNGLE NEW	Grease.	Cupid	6	4	12	13	+17.0	30	1
ADC OFF-ROLE	Horrify	Anubis	10	4	4	66	+21.1	87	6
SOLO NEW	Fuzzbuckit12	Sobek	7	3	17	0	+21.7	22	0

CHAOS (LOSS) Team Δ -51.4

Role	Player	God	K	D	A	Elo Before	Δ	Elo After	Games
SUPPORT OFF-ROLE	RogueThrone	Morgan Le Fay	2	8	5	-35	-8.9	-44	13
JUNGLE THIRD	sillyslother	Kali	6	5	2	70	-10.9	59	12
ADC SECONDARY	Jonhy0700	Sol	7	8	2	32	-11.3	21	19
MID OFF-ROLE	GTboss94	Artio	0	7	3	19	-8.5	11	5
SOLO NEW	Ceart	Guan Yu	1	8	5	-29	-11.9	-41	2

Elo: K=32 base · off-role wins boosted, off-role losses softened · stomps (F6) +25%

Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split

ORDER

13

50% win prob

Δ 1

most balanced split

CHAOS

13

50% win prob

ORDER · optimal

Role	Player	Elo
SUPPORT	Weak3n	27
MID	iRoFFLe	-33
JUNGLE	sillyslother	70
ADC	Jonhy0700	32
SOLO	Ceart	-29

CHAOS · optimal

Role	Player	Elo
SUPPORT	RogueThrone	-35
MID	GTboss94	19
JUNGLE	Grease.	13
ADC	Horrify	66
SOLO	Fuzzbuckit12	rookie

What changed vs actual draft

sillyslother: CHAOS JUNGLE → ORDER JUNGLE
Jonhy0700: CHAOS ADC → ORDER ADC
Ceart: CHAOS SOLO → ORDER SOLO

Notes / Flags

sillyslother [weak3n_said]: Remind me to play SWEAT Jungles gods and Invade his Jungle 24/7 since were cringe Invading in Customs
iRoFFLe [weak3n_said]: How do you mess up every engagement First was left oracles, both rouge engages, then purple buff
iRoFFLe [weak3n_said]: Can't Say you're here and not use an ability