CHAOS WIN
UPSET
07/13/2026 · Match #3 · Conquest
Kills
31 – 39
MVP · best KDA
Malenia 10/4/14
Biggest Elo gain
Ultima +9.9
Biggest Elo drop
Dr Germ -7.2
Balance Analysis
Based on 206 prior matchesORDER
54% win prob
Δ 27
Lean ORDER
UPSET — underdog won
CHAOS
46% win prob
Order win probChaos win prob
Calibrated model prediction: 0% Order / 100% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
Riptzer
OVR
Master II
JUNGLE
Amber I PLACEMENT
SLIGHT EDGE — Chaos
gap 28 · 54% favored
Weak3n
OVR
Platinum I
JUNGLE
Silver III
ADC
Dr Germ
OVR
Amber II PLACEMENT
ADC
Amber III PLACEMENT
CLEAR EDGE — Order
gap 44 · 56% favored
i cant read
OVR
ROFFLE Tier
ADC
ROFFLE Tier
MID
Malenia
OVR
Amber I PLACEMENT
MID
Amber I PLACEMENT
SLIGHT EDGE — Order
gap 17 · 52% favored
Ultima
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
MID
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
MrUMS
OVR
Amber I PLACEMENT
SOLO
Amber I PLACEMENT
SLIGHT EDGE — Order
gap 14 · 52% favored
StutterMcGee
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
iRoFFLe
OVR
Amber II
SUPPORT
Bronze II
EVEN
gap 4 · 51% favored
Jigann
OVR
Silver III
SUPPORT
Bronze I
ORDER (LOSS) 31 kills Team Δ -19.5
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE OFF-ROLE | Riptzer | 12/6/9 | 3.50 | 196 | ▼ -1.8 | 194 | 131 | |
| ADC NEW | Dr Germ | 3/12/7 | 0.83 | 9 | ▼ -7.2 | 2 | 1 | |
| MID NEW | Malenia MVP | 10/4/14 | 6.00 | 12 | ▼ -2.1 | 9 | 1 | |
| SOLO SECONDARY | MrUMS | 3/9/10 | 1.44 | 13 | ▼ -3.9 | 9 | 6 | |
| SUPPORT | iRoFFLe | 3/8/15 | 2.25 | 6 | ▼ -4.4 | 2 | 55 |
CHAOS (WIN) 39 kills Team Δ +32.3
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Weak3n | 10/8/10 | 2.50 | 108 | ▲ +4.3 | 113 | 206 | |
| ADC | i cant read | 8/5/13 | 4.20 | -42 | ▲ +6.9 | -35 | 63 | |
| MID NEW | Ultima | 11/4/12 | 5.75 | 1 | ▲ +9.9 | 10 | 2 | |
| SOLO SECONDARY | StutterMcGee | 3/10/14 | 1.70 | -4 | ▲ +3.3 | -1 | 4 | |
| SUPPORT | Jigann | 7/4/10 | 4.25 | 37 | ▲ +7.9 | 44 | 25 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 0
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | i cant read | ROFFLE Tier | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | StutterMcGee | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | Dr Germ | Amber II PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | Ultima | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer | Master II | Master I |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Malenia | Amber I PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Jigann | Silver III | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | MrUMS | Amber I PLACEMENT | Amber I PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Platinum I | Platinum II PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | iRoFFLe | Amber II | Bronze II |
What changed vs actual draft
- Riptzer: ORDER JUNGLE → ORDER SUPPORT
- Dr Germ: ORDER ADC → ORDER MID
- i cant read: CHAOS ADC → ORDER JUNGLE
- StutterMcGee: CHAOS SOLO → ORDER ADC
- Ultima: CHAOS MID → ORDER SOLO
- iRoFFLe: ORDER SUPPORT → CHAOS SUPPORT
- MrUMS: ORDER SOLO → CHAOS MID
- Malenia: ORDER MID → CHAOS JUNGLE
- Weak3n: CHAOS JUNGLE → CHAOS SOLO
- Jigann: CHAOS SUPPORT → CHAOS ADC
Notes / Flags
- iRoFFLe [general]: cap
- i cant read [general]: cap
- Malenia [general]: top
- Dr Germ [shitter]: didnt compete