CHAOS WIN
07/12/2026 · Match #6 · Conquest
Balance Analysis
Based on 203 prior matchesORDER
49% win prob
Δ 9
Balanced
CHAOS
51% win prob
Order win probChaos win prob
Calibrated model prediction: 52% Order / 48% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
Weak3n
OVR
Diamond III
JUNGLE
Silver I
EVEN
gap 3 · 50% favored
Kryooo
OVR
Obsidian III
JUNGLE
Silver I
ADC
i cant read
OVR
ROFFLE Tier
ADC
ROFFLE Tier
CLEAR EDGE — Chaos
gap 32 · 55% favored
Japanese_FanBoys
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC
Amber III PLACEMENT
MID
Ultima
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
MID
Amber III PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 7 · 51% favored
BiggieSlaps
OVR
Poo Poo II
MID
Amber II PLACEMENT
SOLO
StutterMcGee
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 5 · 51% favored
Jordi
OVR
Bronze I PLACEMENT
SOLO
Amber II PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Jigann
OVR
Silver II
SUPPORT
Silver II
SLIGHT EDGE — Order
gap 27 · 54% favored
iRoFFLe
OVR
Poo Poo I
SUPPORT
Bronze III
ORDER (LOSS) 24 kills Team Δ -25.9
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Weak3n | 5/10/12 | 1.70 | 116 | ▼ -5.4 | 111 | 203 | |
| ADC | i cant read | 6/6/11 | 2.83 | -31 | ▼ -3.3 | -34 | 60 | |
| MID NEW | Ultima | 9/10/8 | 1.70 | 0 | ▼ -5.1 | -5 | 0 | |
| SOLO OFF-ROLE | StutterMcGee | 0/9/10 | 1.11 | -1 | ▼ -3.3 | -4 | 3 | |
| SUPPORT | Jigann | 4/8/4 | 1.00 | 43 | ▼ -8.8 | 34 | 22 |
CHAOS (WIN) 43 kills Team Δ +29.2
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE SECONDARY | Kryooo | 18/5/11 | 5.80 | 147 | ▲ +6.6 | 154 | 96 | |
| ADC NEW | Japanese_FanBoys | 3/6/16 | 3.17 | 0 | ▲ +3.0 | 3 | 0 | |
| MID | BiggieSlaps | 5/4/17 | 5.50 | -6 | ▲ +5.8 | 0 | 13 | |
| SOLO | Jordi MVP | 15/4/14 | 7.25 | 33 | ▲ +8.0 | 41 | 6 | |
| SUPPORT | iRoFFLe | 2/5/18 | 4.00 | -1 | ▲ +5.9 | 5 | 52 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 0
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Ultima | rookie | |
| ADC | Japanese_FanBoys | rookie | |
| MID | BiggieSlaps | Poo Poo II | Amber II PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Diamond III | Platinum II PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Kryooo | Obsidian III | Gold II PLACEMENT |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | i cant read | ROFFLE Tier | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Jigann | Silver II | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | Jordi | Bronze I PLACEMENT | Bronze II PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | StutterMcGee | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | iRoFFLe | Poo Poo I | Bronze III |
What changed vs actual draft
- Weak3n: ORDER JUNGLE → ORDER SOLO
- Ultima: ORDER MID → ORDER JUNGLE
- BiggieSlaps: CHAOS MID → ORDER MID
- Kryooo: CHAOS JUNGLE → ORDER SUPPORT
- Japanese_FanBoys: CHAOS ADC → ORDER ADC
- Jigann: ORDER SUPPORT → CHAOS ADC
- i cant read: ORDER ADC → CHAOS JUNGLE
- StutterMcGee: ORDER SOLO → CHAOS SOLO
- Jordi: CHAOS SOLO → CHAOS MID
Notes / Flags
- Jigann [general]: cap
- Jordi [general]: top cap