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04/21/2026 · Match #21 · Conquest UNCONFIRMED

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CHAOS WIN · Weak3n: AGAINST · F6 by ORDER

VOD: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/2753124660?t=1h42m7s @ 6127s

Balance Analysis

Based on 18 prior matches
ORDER
49
57% win prob
Δ 51
Slight edge UPSET — underdog won
CHAOS
-2
43% win prob

ORDER (LOSS) Team Δ -79.3

RolePlayerGodKDA Elo BeforeΔElo AfterGames
ADC THIRD Weak3n F6er Nu Wa 3 3 0 23 -14.9 8 18
SUPPORT sillyslother F6er Sylvanus 0 3 3 108 -17.9 90 10
SOLO NEW GTboss94 F6er Achilles 0 1 0 20 -15.8 4 3
JUNGLE NEW Ceart F6er Mercury 0 3 0 -13 -15.8 -29 1
MID SECONDARY OSteg F6er Baron Samedi 0 3 1 110 -15.0 95 11

CHAOS (WIN) Team Δ +145.5

RolePlayerGodKDA Elo BeforeΔElo AfterGames
ADC RogueThrone STOMPER Jing Wei 0 1 7 -48 +30.1 -18 11
JUNGLE NEW AlphaClaps STOMPER Fenrir 4 0 5 14 +34.2 48 3
MID Jonhy0700 STOMPER Morgan Le Fay 3 0 5 -23 +32.2 9 17
SUPPORT NEW ELLEONTTV STOMPER Yemoja 6 2 3 48 +25.0 73 4
SOLO NEW Stych 99 STOMPER Cerberus 0 0 4 0 +24.0 24 0

Elo: K=32 base · off-role wins boosted, off-role losses softened · stomps (F6) +25%

Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split

ORDER
24
50% win prob
Δ 1
most balanced split
CHAOS
23
50% win prob

ORDER · optimal

RolePlayerElo
ADC Weak3n 23
SUPPORT sillyslother 108
SOLO Stych 99 rookie
JUNGLE AlphaClaps 14
MID Jonhy0700 -23

CHAOS · optimal

RolePlayerElo
ADC RogueThrone -48
SUPPORT ELLEONTTV 48
SOLO GTboss94 20
JUNGLE Ceart -13
MID OSteg 110

What changed vs actual draft

Notes / Flags