04/20/2026 · Match #1 · Conquest CONFIRMED
Confirmed by Jalopy on 4/24/2026, 10:11:27 PM
ORDER WIN · Weak3n: WITH · Length: 32:20
VOD: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/2753124660?t=0h36m45s @ 2205s
Balance Analysis
Based on 14 prior matchesORDER
47% win prob
Δ 24
Balanced
CHAOS
53% win prob
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
Weak3n
OVR
Amber II
JUNGLE
Bronze III
SLIGHT EDGE — Order
gap 18 · 53% favored
AlphaClaps
OVR
Amber I PLACEMENT
JUNGLE
Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC
RogueThrone
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC
Amber III PLACEMENT
SLIGHT EDGE — Chaos
gap 29 · 54% favored
sillyslother
OVR
Silver II PLACEMENT
ADC
Amber III PLACEMENT
MID
Jonhy0700
OVR
Dog Shit III
MID
Amber III PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 5 · 51% favored
Jalopy
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
MID
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
OSteg
OVR
Amber III
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 0 · 50% favored
Ceart
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
GTboss94
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Amber III PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 4 · 51% favored
Xuffer
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Amber III PLACEMENT
ORDER (WIN) Team Δ +32.1
| Role | Player | God | K | D | A | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Weak3n TOP DMG | Nut | 16 | 5 | 21 | 6 | +6.1 | 12 | 14 |
| ADC | RogueThrone | Cupid | 22 | 9 | 6 | -47 | +2.9 | -44 | 8 |
| MID | Jonhy0700 C | Princess Bari | 8 | 6 | 22 | -28 | +4.0 | -24 | 14 |
| SOLO OFF-ROLE | OSteg | Cabrakan | 11 | 2 | 23 | 4 | +15.3 | 19 | 10 |
| SUPPORT NEW | GTboss94 | Athena | 3 | 8 | 24 | -1 | +3.7 | 3 | 2 |
CHAOS (LOSS) Team Δ -25.9
| Role | Player | God | K | D | A | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE NEW | AlphaClaps | Ratatoskr | 4 | 15 | 12 | 14 | -8.4 | 5 | 2 |
| ADC OFF-ROLE | sillyslother C | Apollo | 7 | 12 | 7 | 47 | -3.6 | 43 | 6 |
| MID NEW | Jalopy | Merlin | 12 | 7 | 8 | 0 | -2.9 | -3 | 0 |
| SOLO NEW | Ceart | Osiris | 3 | 12 | 8 | 0 | -8.5 | -8 | 0 |
| SUPPORT NEW | Xuffer | Ymir | 4 | 14 | 15 | -6 | -2.5 | -8 | 1 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 0
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | GTboss94 | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Xuffer | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | Jonhy0700 | Dog Shit III | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | Ceart | rookie | |
| SUPPORT | Jalopy | rookie | |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Weak3n | Amber II | Bronze III |
| ADC | RogueThrone | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | AlphaClaps | Amber I PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | sillyslother | Silver II PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | OSteg | Amber III | Amber III PLACEMENT |
What changed vs actual draft
- GTboss94: ORDER SUPPORT → ORDER JUNGLE
- Xuffer: CHAOS SUPPORT → ORDER ADC
- Ceart: CHAOS SOLO → ORDER SOLO
- Jalopy: CHAOS MID → ORDER SUPPORT
- Weak3n: ORDER JUNGLE → CHAOS JUNGLE
- RogueThrone: ORDER ADC → CHAOS ADC
- OSteg: ORDER SOLO → CHAOS SUPPORT
- sillyslother: CHAOS ADC → CHAOS SOLO
- AlphaClaps: CHAOS JUNGLE → CHAOS MID