CHAOS WIN
UPSET
05/28/2026 · Match #2 · Conquest
Confirmed by Jalopy on 5/29/2026, 6:17:10 PM
Kills
29 – 45
MVP · best KDA
iRoFFLe 2/2/35
Biggest Elo gain
iRoFFLe +18.3
Biggest Elo drop
Weak3n -7.5
Balance Analysis
Based on 180 prior matchesORDER
54% win prob
Δ 25
Lean ORDER
UPSET — underdog won
CHAOS
46% win prob
Order win probChaos win prob
Calibrated model prediction: 100% Order / 0% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
Weak3n
OVR
Silver I
JUNGLE
Amber III
EVEN
gap 2 · 50% favored
Bioskyz
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
JUNGLE
Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC
Riptzer
OVR
Master III
ADC
Dog Shit I
CLEAR EDGE — Chaos
gap 44 · 56% favored
Jalopy
OVR
Platinum III
ADC
Bronze I PLACEMENT
MID
LordSlatysteak
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
MID
Amber III PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 4 · 51% favored
Drewpossibly
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
MID
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
GTboss94
OVR
Poo Poo III
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
CLEAR EDGE — Chaos
gap 32 · 55% favored
Hydra
OVR
Bronze II PLACEMENT
SOLO
Amber I PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
PEACE14
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Amber III PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 2 · 50% favored
iRoFFLe
OVR
Poo Poo III
SUPPORT
Poo Poo I
ORDER (LOSS) 29 kills Team Δ -24.7
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Weak3n TOP DMG | 17/13/2 | 1.46 | 55 | ▼ -7.5 | 48 | 180 | |
| ADC THIRD | Riptzer C | 5/8/11 | 2.00 | 181 | ▼ -3.2 | 177 | 124 | |
| MID NEW | LordSlatysteak | 4/7/12 | 2.29 | 4 | ▼ -5.4 | -1 | 1 | |
| SOLO SECONDARY | GTboss94 | 3/7/6 | 1.29 | -11 | ▼ -4.3 | -16 | 20 | |
| SUPPORT NEW | PEACE14 | 0/10/20 | 2.00 | 0 | ▼ -4.2 | -4 | 0 |
CHAOS (WIN) 45 kills Team Δ +32.2
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Bioskyz C | 15/8/16 | 3.88 | 2 | ▲ +2.8 | 5 | 3 | |
| ADC SECONDARY | Jalopy | 11/10/12 | 2.30 | 88 | ▲ +1.9 | 90 | 25 | |
| MID NEW | Drewpossibly | 8/4/28 | 9.00 | -2 | ▲ +6.2 | 4 | 1 | |
| SOLO | Hydra | 9/7/17 | 3.71 | 28 | ▲ +2.9 | 31 | 4 | |
| SUPPORT | iRoFFLe MVP | 2/2/35 | 18.50 | -13 | ▲ +18.3 | 6 | 41 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 0
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Jalopy | Platinum III | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Bioskyz | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | iRoFFLe | Poo Poo III | Poo Poo II |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Silver I | Platinum III PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | GTboss94 | Poo Poo III | Amber I |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | LordSlatysteak | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Hydra | Bronze II PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | PEACE14 | rookie | |
| SOLO | Drewpossibly | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer | Master III | Master II |
What changed vs actual draft
- GTboss94: ORDER SOLO → ORDER SUPPORT
- Weak3n: ORDER JUNGLE → ORDER SOLO
- Jalopy: CHAOS ADC → ORDER JUNGLE
- iRoFFLe: CHAOS SUPPORT → ORDER MID
- Bioskyz: CHAOS JUNGLE → ORDER ADC
- Riptzer: ORDER ADC → CHAOS SUPPORT
- LordSlatysteak: ORDER MID → CHAOS JUNGLE
- PEACE14: ORDER SUPPORT → CHAOS MID
- Hydra: CHAOS SOLO → CHAOS ADC
- Drewpossibly: CHAOS MID → CHAOS SOLO
Notes / Flags
- GTboss94 [shitter]: backed with fire left the team then inted