CHAOS WIN
UPSET
05/24/2026 · Match #2 · Conquest
Confirmed by Jalopy on 5/25/2026, 1:08:42 PM
Kills
23 – 36
MVP · best KDA
Jonhy0700 9/3/13
Biggest Elo gain
Jonhy0700 +9.3
Biggest Elo drop
Riptzer -15.8
Balance Analysis
Based on 170 prior matchesORDER
54% win prob
Δ 29
Lean ORDER
UPSET — underdog won
CHAOS
46% win prob
Order win probChaos win prob
Calibrated model prediction: 0% Order / 100% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
Shmeep
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
JUNGLE
Amber III PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 0 · 50% favored
Warhamers12
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
JUNGLE
Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC
SSaiyanBlu
OVR
Dog Shit II
ADC
Amber III PLACEMENT
SLIGHT EDGE — Chaos
gap 11 · 52% favored
Horrify
OVR
Amber II
ADC
Amber I PLACEMENT
MID
Weak3n
OVR
Silver I
MID
Amber I
CLEAR EDGE — Order
gap 32 · 55% favored
Imdead
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
MID
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Riptzer
OVR
Master III
SOLO
Poo Poo I
CLEAR EDGE — Chaos
gap 46 · 57% favored
Jonhy0700
OVR
Gold II
SOLO
Silver III
SUPPORT
Room40
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Amber III PLACEMENT
SLIGHT EDGE — Order
gap 20 · 53% favored
iRoFFLe
OVR
Dog Shit III
SUPPORT
Dog Shit I
ORDER (LOSS) 23 kills Team Δ -25.7
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE OFF-ROLE | Shmeep | 9/6/5 | 2.33 | -17 | ▼ -1.9 | -19 | 6 | |
| ADC OFF-ROLE | SSaiyanBlu | 5/7/6 | 1.57 | -21 | ▼ -3.0 | -24 | 13 | |
| MID OFF-ROLE | Weak3n TOP DMG | 6/6/12 | 3.00 | 49 | ▼ -3.1 | 46 | 170 | |
| SOLO THIRD | Riptzer C | 2/8/1 | 0.38 | 187 | ▼ -15.8 | 171 | 115 | |
| SUPPORT | Room40 | 1/9/15 | 1.78 | -16 | ▼ -1.9 | -18 | 9 |
CHAOS (WIN) 36 kills Team Δ +32.5
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE NEW | Warhamers12 | 6/4/16 | 5.50 | 0 | ▲ +6.4 | 6 | 0 | |
| ADC THIRD | Horrify | 12/6/8 | 3.33 | 5 | ▲ +4.2 | 10 | 39 | |
| MID | Imdead | 9/4/15 | 6.00 | -5 | ▲ +7.1 | 2 | 8 | |
| SOLO THIRD | Jonhy0700 MVP C | 9/3/13 | 7.33 | 67 | ▲ +9.3 | 76 | 158 | |
| SUPPORT | iRoFFLe | 0/6/19 | 3.17 | -28 | ▲ +5.4 | -22 | 34 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 0
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Room40 | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Imdead | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | Shmeep | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | Warhamers12 | rookie | |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer | Master III | Master II |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | SSaiyanBlu | Dog Shit II | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Horrify | Amber II | Amber I PLACEMENT |
| MID | iRoFFLe | Dog Shit III | Poo Poo II |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Silver I | Platinum III PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Jonhy0700 | Gold II | Amber II PLACEMENT |
What changed vs actual draft
- Room40: ORDER SUPPORT → ORDER JUNGLE
- Shmeep: ORDER JUNGLE → ORDER MID
- Riptzer: ORDER SOLO → ORDER SUPPORT
- Imdead: CHAOS MID → ORDER ADC
- Warhamers12: CHAOS JUNGLE → ORDER SOLO
- Weak3n: ORDER MID → CHAOS SOLO
- SSaiyanBlu: ORDER ADC → CHAOS JUNGLE
- Jonhy0700: CHAOS SOLO → CHAOS SUPPORT
- iRoFFLe: CHAOS SUPPORT → CHAOS MID
Notes / Flags
- Riptzer [shitter]: role diffed
- SSaiyanBlu [shitter]: doesnt know how to play iza adc