CHAOS WIN
05/14/2026 · Match #1 · Conquest
Confirmed by Jalopy on 5/15/2026, 12:53:51 PM
Kills
22 – 28
MVP · best KDA
Jalopy 3/2/16
Biggest Elo gain
Jalopy +12.8
Biggest Elo drop
Jonhy0700 -5.7
Balance Analysis
Based on 137 prior matchesORDER
44% win prob
Δ 39
Lean CHAOS
CHAOS
56% win prob
Order win probChaos win prob
Calibrated model prediction: 85% Order / 15% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
Jonhy0700
OVR
Dog Shit I
JUNGLE
Dog Shit III
MISMATCH — Chaos
gap 104 · 65% favored
Weak3n
OVR
Diamond I
JUNGLE
Gold I
ADC
i cant read
OVR
Bronze III
ADC
Bronze III
EVEN
gap 3 · 50% favored
Kryooo
OVR
Gold I
ADC
Bronze II
MID
Boolougames
OVR
Silver I
MID
Gold I
MISMATCH — Order
gap 81 · 61% favored
BiggieSlaps
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
MID
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
GTboss94
OVR
Dog Shit I
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 10 · 51% favored
TramboneKing
OVR
Dog Shit II
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Dreamdemon
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Amber III PLACEMENT
CLEAR EDGE — Chaos
gap 35 · 55% favored
Jalopy
OVR
Silver I
SUPPORT
Bronze I
ORDER (LOSS) 22 kills Team Δ -20.3
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Jonhy0700 C | 10/8/1 | 1.38 | -16 | ▼ -5.7 | -21 | 128 | |
| ADC | i cant read | 5/5/3 | 1.60 | 20 | ▼ -5.0 | 15 | 25 | |
| MID | Boolougames | 2/3/6 | 2.67 | 56 | ▼ -3.3 | 53 | 56 | |
| SOLO SECONDARY | GTboss94 | 5/8/2 | 0.88 | -16 | ▼ -5.3 | -22 | 13 | |
| SUPPORT NEW | Dreamdemon | 0/5/14 | 2.80 | -3 | ▼ -1.1 | -4 | 1 |
CHAOS (WIN) 28 kills Team Δ +26.6
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Weak3n | 6/6/11 | 2.83 | 138 | ▲ +2.9 | 141 | 137 | |
| ADC | Kryooo C TOP DMG | 9/4/7 | 4.00 | 81 | ▲ +4.3 | 85 | 69 | |
| MID SECONDARY | BiggieSlaps | 5/4/10 | 3.75 | -13 | ▲ +3.8 | -9 | 5 | |
| SOLO SECONDARY | TramboneKing | 5/6/10 | 2.50 | -22 | ▲ +2.8 | -19 | 10 | |
| SUPPORT | Jalopy MVP | 3/2/16 | 9.50 | 52 | ▲ +12.8 | 64 | 18 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 1
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Jalopy | Silver I | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Dreamdemon | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | Boolougames | Silver I | Gold I |
| SOLO | Jonhy0700 | Dog Shit I | Bronze III |
| SUPPORT | i cant read | Bronze III | Amber III PLACEMENT |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | BiggieSlaps | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | TramboneKing | Dog Shit II | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | Kryooo | Gold I | Bronze II PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Diamond I | Platinum II PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | GTboss94 | Dog Shit I | Amber II PLACEMENT |
What changed vs actual draft
- Dreamdemon: ORDER SUPPORT → ORDER ADC
- Jonhy0700: ORDER JUNGLE → ORDER SOLO
- i cant read: ORDER ADC → ORDER SUPPORT
- Jalopy: CHAOS SUPPORT → ORDER JUNGLE
- GTboss94: ORDER SOLO → CHAOS SUPPORT
- BiggieSlaps: CHAOS MID → CHAOS JUNGLE
- TramboneKing: CHAOS SOLO → CHAOS ADC
- Weak3n: CHAOS JUNGLE → CHAOS SOLO
- Kryooo: CHAOS ADC → CHAOS MID