CHAOS WIN
05/08/2026 · Match #2 · Conquest
Confirmed by Jalopy on 5/9/2026, 12:57:28 PM
Kills
36 – 44
MVP · best KDA
Jonhy0700 24/7/9
Biggest Elo gain
OSteg +7.4
Biggest Elo drop
Watertrickster -9.7
Balance Analysis
Based on 125 prior matchesORDER
49% win prob
Δ 7
Balanced
CHAOS
51% win prob
Order win probChaos win prob
Calibrated model prediction: 0% Order / 100% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
AlphaClaps
OVR
Bronze I
JUNGLE
Poo Poo III
EVEN
gap 5 · 51% favored
Jonhy0700
OVR
Amber I
JUNGLE
Poo Poo II
ADC
Watertrickster
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC
Amber III PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 4 · 51% favored
i cant read
OVR
Poo Poo I
ADC
Poo Poo I
MID
Weak3n
OVR
Obsidian III
MID
Bronze III
EVEN
gap 9 · 51% favored
ItzStallone
OVR
Gold III
MID
Bronze I
SOLO
Shmeep
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
CLEAR EDGE — Chaos
gap 35 · 55% favored
OSteg
OVR
Poo Poo I
SOLO
Bronze II PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
[CopebbyEsports] MindyRox420
OVR
Poo Poo I
SUPPORT
Bronze I
MISMATCH — Chaos
gap 113 · 66% favored
Riptzer
OVR
Diamond I
SUPPORT
Obsidian III
ORDER (LOSS) 36 kills Team Δ -25.6
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE SECONDARY | AlphaClaps C | 16/7/12 | 4.00 | 29 | ▼ -3.5 | 26 | 39 | |
| ADC NEW | Watertrickster | 4/10/12 | 1.60 | 0 | ▼ -9.7 | -10 | 0 | |
| MID THIRD | Weak3n TOP DMG | 6/6/18 | 4.00 | 154 | ▼ -3.7 | 150 | 125 | |
| SOLO SECONDARY | Shmeep | 4/7/14 | 2.57 | -10 | ▼ -4.9 | -15 | 4 | |
| SUPPORT SECONDARY | [CopebbyEsports] MindyRox420 | 6/14/16 | 1.57 | -4 | ▼ -3.8 | -8 | 30 |
CHAOS (WIN) 44 kills Team Δ +29.4
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Jonhy0700 MVP C | 24/7/9 | 4.71 | 11 | ▲ +7.1 | 18 | 116 | |
| ADC | i cant read | 7/5/16 | 4.60 | -3 | ▲ +6.1 | 3 | 19 | |
| MID | ItzStallone | 6/11/13 | 1.73 | 62 | ▲ +2.4 | 65 | 26 | |
| SOLO THIRD | OSteg | 5/5/18 | 4.60 | -1 | ▲ +7.4 | 6 | 53 | |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer | 2/9/28 | 3.33 | 137 | ▲ +6.4 | 144 | 87 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 0
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | i cant read | Poo Poo I | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Shmeep | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | Riptzer | Diamond I | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | Jonhy0700 | Amber I | Amber I |
| SUPPORT | [CopebbyEsports] MindyRox420 | Poo Poo I | Bronze I |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | OSteg | Poo Poo I | Amber II PLACEMENT |
| ADC | ItzStallone | Gold III | Gold III |
| MID | AlphaClaps | Bronze I | Bronze I PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Obsidian III | Platinum II PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Watertrickster | rookie | |
What changed vs actual draft
- Shmeep: ORDER SOLO → ORDER ADC
- Jonhy0700: CHAOS JUNGLE → ORDER SOLO
- Riptzer: CHAOS SUPPORT → ORDER MID
- i cant read: CHAOS ADC → ORDER JUNGLE
- Weak3n: ORDER MID → CHAOS SOLO
- AlphaClaps: ORDER JUNGLE → CHAOS MID
- Watertrickster: ORDER ADC → CHAOS SUPPORT
- OSteg: CHAOS SOLO → CHAOS JUNGLE
- ItzStallone: CHAOS MID → CHAOS ADC