CHAOS WIN
05/06/2026 · Match #3 · Conquest
Confirmed by Jalopy on 5/7/2026, 1:27:14 PM
Kills
12 – 38
MVP · best KDA
Weak3n 4/1/23
Biggest Elo gain
Weak3n +16.6
Biggest Elo drop
Riptzer -6.9
Balance Analysis
Based on 114 prior matchesORDER
52% win prob
Δ 15
Balanced
CHAOS
48% win prob
Order win probChaos win prob
Calibrated model prediction: 43% Order / 57% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
Sink
OVR
Bronze III PLACEMENT
JUNGLE
Amber II PLACEMENT
SLIGHT EDGE — Chaos
gap 19 · 53% favored
Kryooo
OVR
Gold III
JUNGLE
Bronze II
ADC
AlphaClaps
OVR
Bronze II
ADC
Bronze I PLACEMENT
SLIGHT EDGE — Order
gap 22 · 53% favored
leoorchild
OVR
Amber II PLACEMENT
ADC
Amber II PLACEMENT
MID
Jonhy0700
OVR
Bronze I
MID
Poo Poo I
SLIGHT EDGE — Order
gap 29 · 54% favored
Edgewing
OVR
Dog Shit II
MID
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
DeltaJulz613
OVR
Silver III
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 0 · 50% favored
timerrr
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Riptzer
OVR
Diamond I
SUPPORT
Diamond I
MISMATCH — Order
gap 81 · 61% favored
Weak3n
OVR
Diamond II
SUPPORT
Silver I PLACEMENT
ORDER (LOSS) 12 kills Team Δ -21.5
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Sink | 2/8/6 | 1.00 | 18 | ▼ -3.0 | 15 | 5 | |
| ADC SECONDARY | AlphaClaps | 3/11/3 | 0.55 | 26 | ▼ -5.2 | 21 | 33 | |
| MID THIRD | Jonhy0700 | 3/6/4 | 1.17 | 31 | ▼ -4.9 | 26 | 106 | |
| SOLO OFF-ROLE | DeltaJulz613 C | 2/3/3 | 1.67 | 38 | ▼ -1.6 | 36 | 34 | |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer | 2/10/5 | 0.70 | 133 | ▼ -6.9 | 126 | 79 |
CHAOS (WIN) 38 kills Team Δ +31.3
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE SECONDARY | Kryooo TOP DMG | 17/3/9 | 8.67 | 62 | ▲ +4.3 | 67 | 57 | |
| ADC | leoorchild | 9/3/9 | 6.00 | 8 | ▲ +2.9 | 11 | 3 | |
| MID SECONDARY | Edgewing C | 6/2/19 | 12.50 | -22 | ▲ +5.7 | -16 | 21 | |
| SOLO NEW | timerrr | 2/3/7 | 3.00 | 0 | ▲ +1.9 | 2 | 0 | |
| SUPPORT OFF-ROLE | Weak3n MVP | 4/1/23 | 27.00 | 122 | ▲ +16.6 | 138 | 114 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 1
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Edgewing | Dog Shit II | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Sink | Bronze III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | AlphaClaps | Bronze II | Bronze II PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Diamond II | Platinum II PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Jonhy0700 | Bronze I | Amber III PLACEMENT |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | DeltaJulz613 | Silver III | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | timerrr | rookie | |
| MID | leoorchild | Amber II PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | Kryooo | Gold III | Silver I PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer | Diamond I | Diamond I |
What changed vs actual draft
- Jonhy0700: ORDER MID → ORDER SUPPORT
- AlphaClaps: ORDER ADC → ORDER MID
- Sink: ORDER JUNGLE → ORDER ADC
- Edgewing: CHAOS MID → ORDER JUNGLE
- Weak3n: CHAOS SUPPORT → ORDER SOLO
- Riptzer: ORDER SUPPORT → CHAOS SUPPORT
- DeltaJulz613: ORDER SOLO → CHAOS JUNGLE
- leoorchild: CHAOS ADC → CHAOS MID
- Kryooo: CHAOS JUNGLE → CHAOS SOLO
- timerrr: CHAOS SOLO → CHAOS ADC