CHAOS WIN
UPSET
05/03/2026 · Match #4 · Conquest
Confirmed by Jalopy on 5/4/2026, 2:19:26 PM
Kills
19 – 26
MVP · best KDA
Riptzer 0/1/20
Biggest Elo gain
Riptzer +16.1
Biggest Elo drop
OneFruityDon -15.2
Balance Analysis
Based on 97 prior matchesORDER
54% win prob
Δ 25
Lean ORDER
UPSET — underdog won
CHAOS
46% win prob
Order win probChaos win prob
Calibrated model prediction: 0% Order / 100% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
Weak3n
OVR
Diamond I
JUNGLE
Gold I
MISMATCH — Order
gap 81 · 61% favored
sillyslother
OVR
Gold I
JUNGLE
Poo Poo II
ADC
[CopebbyEsports] MindyRox420
OVR
Amber I
ADC
Amber III PLACEMENT
SLIGHT EDGE — Order
gap 15 · 52% favored
i cant read
OVR
Poo Poo III
ADC
Amber III PLACEMENT
MID
Jonhy0700
OVR
Bronze II
MID
Bronze III
MISMATCH — Order
gap 69 · 60% favored
RogueThrone
OVR
ROFFLE Tier
MID
ROFFLE Tier
SOLO
OneFruityDon
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 0 · 50% favored
Portdegree
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Edgewing
OVR
Poo Poo III
SUPPORT
Amber III PLACEMENT
MISMATCH — Chaos
gap 125 · 67% favored
Riptzer
OVR
Platinum II
SUPPORT
Diamond III
ORDER (LOSS) 19 kills Team Δ -29.4
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Weak3n | 4/4/9 | 3.25 | 135 | ▼ -2.5 | 132 | 97 | |
| ADC THIRD | [CopebbyEsports] MindyRox420 | 8/5/3 | 2.20 | 10 | ▼ -3.3 | 7 | 23 | |
| MID THIRD | Jonhy0700 | 7/6/1 | 1.33 | 28 | ▼ -5.5 | 22 | 89 | |
| SOLO NEW | OneFruityDon | 0/7/2 | 0.29 | 0 | ▼ -15.2 | -15 | 0 | |
| SUPPORT SECONDARY | Edgewing C | 0/6/6 | 1.00 | -13 | ▼ -2.8 | -16 | 17 |
CHAOS (WIN) 26 kills Team Δ +32.2
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE SECONDARY | sillyslother TOP DMG | 6/5/12 | 3.60 | 74 | ▲ +2.0 | 76 | 55 | |
| ADC | i cant read C | 3/6/10 | 2.17 | -10 | ▲ +1.9 | -8 | 12 | |
| MID SECONDARY | RogueThrone | 5/6/11 | 2.67 | -128 | ▲ +1.9 | -126 | 63 | |
| SOLO NEW | Portdegree | 12/1/7 | 19.00 | 0 | ▲ +10.4 | 10 | 0 | |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer MVP | 0/1/20 | 20.00 | 97 | ▲ +16.1 | 113 | 63 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 1
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | i cant read | Poo Poo III | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Edgewing | Poo Poo III | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | RogueThrone | ROFFLE Tier | ROFFLE Tier |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Diamond I | Platinum II PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | [CopebbyEsports] MindyRox420 | Amber I | Bronze I PLACEMENT |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | OneFruityDon | rookie | |
| ADC | Portdegree | rookie | |
| MID | Jonhy0700 | Bronze II | Bronze III |
| SOLO | sillyslother | Gold I | Gold I PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer | Platinum II | Diamond III |
What changed vs actual draft
- [CopebbyEsports] MindyRox420: ORDER ADC → ORDER SUPPORT
- Edgewing: ORDER SUPPORT → ORDER ADC
- Weak3n: ORDER JUNGLE → ORDER SOLO
- RogueThrone: CHAOS MID → ORDER MID
- i cant read: CHAOS ADC → ORDER JUNGLE
- Jonhy0700: ORDER MID → CHAOS MID
- OneFruityDon: ORDER SOLO → CHAOS JUNGLE
- sillyslother: CHAOS JUNGLE → CHAOS SOLO
- Portdegree: CHAOS SOLO → CHAOS ADC
Notes / Flags
- Edgewing [shitter]: cant play yem
- OneFruityDon [weak3n_said]: you are 0 and 5 and completely fucking worthless
- OneFruityDon [shitter]: couldnt compete